Ukraine, defence reviews and more: Predicting what 2024 has in store for defence
What happens in Ukraine remains the "big thing on the horizon" for the British Armed Forces, a defence expert has said.
General Sir Richard Barrons, a former commander of Joint Forces Command and now co-chairman of Universal Defence and Security Solutions, gave his predictions for the UK military on the latest episode of the Sitrep podcast.
He said the war in Ukraine was "likely to consolidate in 2024 and really, most likely not get to some sort of decisive outcome of any kind until 2025".
He also said: "There is one clear point of certainty, which is we are watching Russia triple its defence expenditure next year as it bears down on the war in Ukraine."
Gen Sir Richard said Russia believes it is regaining the initiative in Ukraine, making "Nato and the Baltic states in particular feel more nervous".
He also said "much more of all elements of the British forces are going to find themselves playing a bigger part in deterring Russia".
The retired general said this meant the battlegroup in Estonia being reinforced to a brigade.
"I would like to see it augmented with things like more air defence if that were possible," he said.
"I think for the Air Force and the Navy there is likely to be even more of a rebalancing to spending time in that part of the world rather than other global ambitions unless something else happens in the world."
General Election
Gen Sir Richard said there would be an election by January 2025 which meant the winning party "is likely to have a defence review".
"As it happens, the Labour Party have said that they'll start it the day they take office," he said.
He reminded the podcast that "every single review in [his] lifetime has failed to balance ambition and resources", but added: "We should always try and do better."
"The review that's coming is going to have to unlock the terrible conditions that apply right now to the Armed Forces," he said.
"Where there is so little cash for training and travel and infrastructure and also major pressures in the equipment programme.
"One way or another, a defence review has got to settle the ambition and square it with resources - and in there are really profound questions for restoring the Army, which is a matter of policy."
Gen Sir Richard also said improving the British Army needs to be balanced with "Aukus and the investment in the GCAP" - the Global Combat Air Programme that will see the UK, Italy and Japan work together to build the next-generation fighter.
UK Armed Forces refocus?
Despite Ukraine remaining the main focus for the UK, Gen Sir Richard said the focus for the British military would remain Nato and in the Nato area of responsibility.
"We know we now live in a world which is much more challenging and unstable and where things like the effects of climate change and population growth are likely to cause the Armed Forces to have to intervene with friends almost anywhere in the world," he said.
He also outlined the "unrest between Palestine and Israel" and how the Middle East is a region that is feeling "very fragile".
"If, and it's a huge if, it came to an agreement there had to be a third force, external peace support in Gaza to separate the Israeli Defence Forces from the Palestinians and the remnants of Hamas, then there are very few places you can go than to Europe for that quality of effort," he said.
"If you come to Europe, you'll come to the UK."
Listen to Sitrep's full interview with Gen Sir Richard wherever you get your podcasts, including on the Forces News YouTube channel.
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