World

Where will the next conflict be, and why?

There are many reasons a war may start.

The history of a country, its politics, its leadership and any ideas sprouting from its population may all end up contributing to a future war.

But there is also one that cannot be underestimated – geography.

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Tim Marshall, a foreign affairs analyst, told Forces News geography is the "foundation of one of several determining factors in what happens to a country".

"It matters in what direction its rivers flow because that then determines where trade goes from and to – it is as basic as that," he said.

Mr Marshall also said he would "argue strongly that if you don't know the geography of the place, you can't really understand the place".

Watch: Environment – how does climate change affect global security?

But what about using geography to pinpoint future warzones?

Mr Marshall said he is not sure geography can be used to predict the most likely future conflict, but the geographical factors influencing a region can be identified.

"What I think you can say, is that there are the push factors and increasingly, climate change is amongst them and climate change is pushing the movement of peoples.

"The movement of peoples is pushing the tensions and climate change is also pushing poverty.

"And I think when you get that rather unpleasant heady mix, climate change, conflict and poverty, you can then start factoring forward.

"Wherever they become most acute, that's when there's going to be flashpoints."

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