Hamish de Bretton-Gordon weighs in on the debate over defence spending

Opinion

Is 2.6% GDP spending on UK defence simply raising the white flag to Russia?

Hamish de Bretton-Gordon argues that increasing defence spending to 2.6% is not enough to deter the threats in today's dangerous world.

Nato Defence Secretary Mark Rutte came to London this week to galvanise the British government to acknowledge the very real threats to the UK and Europe from Russian expansionism, giving us the stark choice to spend 5% of our GDP on defence or start learning Russian.

Hence, is the 2.6%, but not 3%, announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves – which now additionally includes our security services – a case of Number 10 raising the white flag, or is it a cunning ruse to lull the Kremlin into a false sense of security?

Maybe it would be if we were attacking them, but at least psychologically, with the UK so clearly in Russian President Vladimir Putin's weapons sights, it's difficult to feel it's enough to deter the tyrant heading our way.

According to a study by the Peace Research Institute of Oslo, 2024 recorded the dubious honour of being the most conflicted year across the globe since 1945, with 61 wars in 36 countries.

This is on a rising trajectory and, if assessments coming out of the German Intelligence Service (BND) this week are accurate, Mr Putin is planning to invade further into Europe because he thinks Nato is disjointed and countries are physically and psychologically unprepared to fight.

However, the Russian President believes that the youth of this country are too woke to fight, so he may get the same shock as his metaphysical doppelganger – Hitler – did in the last European war.

Is our defence budget sufficient to deter an emboldened Russia? ( — Is the UK's increased defence budget sufficient to deter an emboldened Russia? (Picture: Kremlin)

The Strategic Defence Review (SDR) announced last week is an excellent assessment of current and future threats and military capabilities, especially if it contains a tactical nuclear component, bizarrely ambiguous, to deter Mr Putin and shift his aim off London.

If replicated in Europe, as most promise, we might just avoid a 1939 moment and prevent war spreading across Europe.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves says 2.6% of GDP is to be spent on Defence — Chancellor Rachel Reeves says defence spending will rise to 2.6% of GDP (Picture: PA)

Ms Reeves hopefully knows that during the Second World War we spent up to 60% of GDP on the war effort, which, even with my O-level maths, makes 5% look like the bargain of the century.

But 2.6%? Bonkers.

Unfortunately, the 2.6% will barely touch the sides of the SDR.

We know this, Nato knows this, Trump knows this and, most importantly, so does Mr Putin.

If the Germans can see fit to break their glass ceiling on defence spending and re-energise their military manufacturing capability and army, almost as Hitler did in the 1930s, why is Westminster so timid at giving Mr Putin a "bloody nose", or rather showing that we can, if required?

Bullies respect strength and exploit weakness.

There must be enough MPs in Westminster who understand this, or are we still governed by the professional politicians who know everything about the ideological principles of politics but nothing about "realpolitik"?

Bigger defence budget needed

If we cannot generate our inner Sun Tzu to produce a military deterrence and allow us to "win the war without fighting", we must follow the General Slim mantra of "hitting the other fella as hard as you can, as fast as you can, where it hurts him most and when he isn't looking".

But at 2.6% it will likely be a sucker-punch rather than a decisive blow.

Let us not forget our enemy, Mr Putin, is running a war economy, spending everything on offensive weapons, and currently views us as just a mere speed bump for his expansionist ambitions.

If it means I must pay more tax to fund 5%, then this is a tax I'm very happy to pay, rather than the thousands I pay now – for what and for whom?

Hamish de Bretton-Gordon OBE is a veteran British Army officer and military analyst.

He is the former commanding officer of the UK's Joint Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Regiment and Nato's Rapid Reaction CBRN Battalion.