Want peace? Prepare for war, as RN sub delivers stark warning to Russian spy ship
This week the Secretary of State for Defence, the Rt Hon John Healey, took the unusual step of discussing the operational details of a Royal Navy submarine's interaction with a Russian naval vessel.
Generally, a little like the Special Forces, it is the case that the Silent Service prefers to conduct its business in the shadows.
Why then might Mr Healey have thought it necessary to disclose this information, and why now?
Well, the Russian navy ship in question, the Yantar, was back in UK waters and Mr Healey wanted the world – and Mr Putin in particular – to know that not only are we watching, but we are paying close attention and are ready to act if required.
Russia is playing a dangerous game.
It is attacking Nato – yes, attacking – using a wide variety of sub-threshold means.
It was fashionable a few years ago to talk about a continual contest in the "grey zone".
Indeed, much of the strategic thinking in the defence and security realm prior to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 was about threats from states that fall short of acts of war, but go beyond peaceful diplomacy and economic competition.
Defence leaders talked about operating and competing in a "sub-threshold" contest with our adversaries.
And whilst the spectre of all-out war with Russia is now focusing the minds of military strategists and planners in a way not seen since the end of the Cold War, the sub-threshold conflict is bubbling away - just below the threshold.
We live in a dangerous time.
As a slight aside, that was one reason why I was somewhat dismayed to see that the House of Commons chamber was virtually empty for this intervention by the Secretary of State.
War may seem unthinkable in the constituencies of the Honourable and Right Honourable members, but one doesn't need to look too far afield to see that open war, when it comes, can change society quickly and devastatingly.
Our elected officials should be taking this more seriously.
The Strategic Defence Review, currently underway in Whitehall, may well highlight the need for more money for defence. This will be unwelcome, given the challenging fiscal position that the UK finds itself in.
But if you think effective deterrence is expensive, try having a war! Just ask Ukraine.
The Yantar mission is part of this grey zone war.
In October, it was loitering over some of the critical national infrastructure in the Irish Sea.
We're talking here about telecommunications cables and perhaps gas pipelines and wind farm infrastructure.
These are critical to energy security, communications and economic productivity.
Damaging them or threatening them applies pressure to a country. It requires resources and attention to protect and repair, and to mitigate any disruption.
When combined with an information warfare campaign, such actions seek to sow seeds of doubt in the Government, embarrass the institutions of the state and undermine societal cohesion.
This is deliberate. Breaking your opponent's will is the way to achieve dominance over them.
Continually chipping away at the foundations of our democracy and confidence in the UK is their strategy.
And so standing up to this and calling it out matters.
And perhaps that's why the submarine was ordered to surface nearby to the ship – to send a clear message: "We are watching and we are taking this seriously, so behave yourselves!"
The Royal Navy operates only five such submarines, with a further two in build.
This is, therefore, a significant commitment to task one of them with this mission.
The boat (submarines are always known as boats) may have been in the vicinity anyway, but these scarce assets do not struggle to fill their days.
Committing a unit like this was to convey the seriousness with which the British Government was taking this threat in our waters.
The Yantar will have had no idea that the submarine was there until it surfaced. It will have come as quite a shock!
Astute-class submarines are formidable vessels. Their sensors are designed to track extremely quiet adversary submarines in the darkness of the deep and to form a firing solution on them.
They are not called hunter-killer submarines for nothing.
Such submariners see everything else as a target.
It will not, therefore, have stretched the boat's crew to track this vessel, but operating a large submarine (nearly 100m long and displacing 7,400 tonnes) in confined and busy waters, whilst routine, should not be underestimated.
The skills and resilience of our submariners should be applauded. The Yantar, according to the Secretary of State, stopped what it was doing and scuttled off to the Mediterranean.
So what is needed? Constant vigilance, and the will and wherewithal to contest in the grey zone.
Acting in the shadows where necessary, whilst continuing to prepare for a more open conflict.
If you want peace, prepare for war.
Nato is standing up a new mission, Baltic Sentry, to do exactly this in the Baltic Sea.
We must continue to pay attention closer to home, as well as support the alliance.
The only way to deal with bullies is to stand up to them. That was the message Mr Healey asked the Royal Navy's submariners to convey to the Yantar.
That message will need to be repeated through deeds as well as words as often as is needed.
Expect more such surprises.
Commodore (Ret'd) Steve Prest is an independent consultant and advisor who can be found on X as @fightingsailor.
In his almost 30 years of service, he has garnered extensive experience in the business of delivering military capability for the UK Armed Forces.
He is an expert in Capability and Acquisition and has been the Senior Responsible Owner of several major defence programmes.
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