Defence expert suspects China and Russia behind sabotage of Baltic comms cables

The West needs to respond to the severing of two telecoms cables in the Baltic Sea, with one expert saying both Russia and China are assumed to have been involved.

The two undersea communication cables, including one that linked Finland to Germany, were severed – recalling other malicious incidents such as the Nord Sea gas pipelines or other undersea cables damaged last year. 

Defence expert Elizabeth Braw said it is a prime example of grey zone warfare, but had been made more complicated as the damage was reportedly carried out by a civilian vessel.

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"It is so difficult when the other side uses means that are part of our daily life and ordinarily would just be totally civilian participants in the daily life of a globalised world," she said.

"The UK military defends the country against military threats, but what do you do when it's not a military threat? And that's where we are at the moment. 

"We can say all we want that we know, or we suspect, that Russia and China, or both, were linked to it, but officially, it's just a merchant vessel."

Ms Braw added that this use of grey zone warfare is a way of harming nations without facing retaliation.

"Clearly Russia has an interest in destabilising the Baltic Sea region using non-military means," she explained. 

"If Russia used military means it would face Nato's collective might."

But responding to the incident is not simple.

"We'll see more of these if we don't do anything about it," she said.

"But if we do something about it, then Russia and China will… treat that as escalatory and will escalate in return."

So why, in 2024, do we still use underwater cables if they are not secure?

Well, because they are central to the modern world and there is no better alternative.

"Our entire society is built on internet connectivity and you can say, 'well, there are satellites'," Ms Braw said.

"Yes, we can use satellite communications, but it's a lot more expensive and… satellites are vulnerable to the same sort of aggression."