Tri-Service
Comment: After The Vote - The Syrian Dilemma
After months of uncertainty, David Cameron has finally persuaded the UK government to extend airstrikes from Iraq to Syria.
But what challenges does Britain now face as part of the international coalition intervening in the country?
Syria presents an exceptionally difficult problem, combining one of the broadest proxy wars in recent history with an exceptionally sophisticated insurgent group.
If Daesh can be dislodged from Raqqa, this could impact its international plotting and it would certainly damage the group’s prestige.
But if the present Syrian regime filled the vacuum, the underlying conditions for Sunni-dominated insurgency in eastern Syria would remain.
Yet more moderate opposition forces would face an unprecedented challenge in driving Daesh out of a large urban area like Raqqa, and governing it in the face of persistent challenges thereafter, even with years of on-going Western support from the air.
This may well be a preferable outcome – in humanitarian and counter-terrorism terms – to leaving swathes of land in the hands of Daesh, but is it a sustainable approach?
The key that could unlock this dilemma – a political transition and a unified government and army – is portrayed as being closer today than a year or two ago, but it would be premature to place too much faith in the Vienna process at this early stage, welcome as that diplomacy is.
Finally, there are also broader principles at stake. As the Conservative Party MP Tom Tugendhat has argued, British grand strategy has always depended on strong, reciprocal alliances: solidarity with France is a legitimate factor, though it must be weighed against the Syria-specific challenges outlined here.
Shashank Joshi is a Senior Research Fellow at RUSI. You can read his original post here.
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