Sitrep: Speculation over the defence spending review is designed to scare
Rumours and speculation have already begun to circulate regarding the upcoming defence and spending review.
Programmes could face the axe, capability gaps could be left as they are and services could get less money given to them than promised.
But the keyword behind all of these rumours is "could".
Resident expert Professor Michael Clarke discussed the upcoming review on the BFBS Sitrep podcast – which analyses the top defence stories of the week and is available wherever you get your podcasts.
Prof Clarke said the MOD had been "reviewed to death" and the Government had "started off cranking the handle of looking at all of the programmes" as well as looking at areas where it could change the spending priorities.
But he also emphasised that the current rumour mill of potential changes were just "speculative stories… designed to scare people".
Prof Clarke said: "[These rumours were designed] to say we might be looking at this, we might be looking at that. And you always find it in defence reviews before the review really gets going.
"I promise you, this review hasn't really got going yet. A lot of preparatory work is going on, but it hasn't really got started on the key choices.
"But before that happens people are making their pitch and that's really what it is."
With the upcoming Budget, the Ministry of Defence will find out the spending limits imposed upon it, with Prof Clarke keen to point out that at this stage we don't know whether the limits will be "favourable or unfavourable".
Defence Secretary John Healey warned in a recent speech that painful decisions are on the way, which inevitably left an information vacuum in which rumour and supposition flourish, according to Sitrep host Kate Gerbeau.
She said Mr Healey's words "didn't exactly do anything to calm things down", an opinion shared by Prof Clarke.
"He was rolling the pitch, making it very clear that there will be painful decisions to take in the interests of the public finances," he said.
"What was interesting, he didn't say in the interest of defence, [he said] in the interest of the public finances.
"This Government has started its term in office… saying we have to get the public finances right before any other aspects of our policy make sense and growth, if we get growth, then, you know, 2% of a bigger cake of growth means more for defence."
But despite these tough decisions, Professor Clarke said the review team would try to avoid cutting any capability.
"What they'll try to do is offer to ministers a series of options," he said.
"I mean, that's all they can do. They can say, look, we can lose this capability, so we could lose a degree of our naval capability if we cut the frigate numbers yet again and the building.
"We could get out of the fifth generation air competition, with all of the problems that that would create for British industry and all the job losses and so on.
"We could do that. And if you command us to do that, that's what we will do.
"But if you want us to try to get through with delays and some stretching programmes, we'll muddle through again, if that's what you really want.
"But... what usually happens is it'll end up in a discussion over a weekend at Chequers with four or five people sitting around saying 'okay, here are the big issues – what are we going to do?'
"All the detailed work will be done and somebody will have to look them in the eye and say 'we're going to do that'.
"And that's the way it will work out."
Professor Clarke also raised the issue of the British Army, stating the service must be "very worried".
"There's £40bn worth of expenditure on equipment that the Army has been allocated, so that spending doesn't start until 2026.
"And so the Army must be concerned that suddenly that would be slashed by half… in order to balance the books."
You can listen to Sitrep wherever you get your podcasts, including on the Forces News YouTube channel.
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