Sobering figures reveal 37% rise in deaths related to armed conflict, new study finds

Deaths as a result of violent events, as well as the lethality of such events, have both risen in the last 12 months, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The IISS Armed Conflict Survey 2024 found deaths were up by 37%, with a massive increase of 315% in the Middle East and North Africa.

An increase in the overall ratio of fatalities per event was also up by 17%, highlighting the growing intensity and lethality of armed violence.

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The IISS said the findings "portray a world where inter-state conflict is once again on the rise with the Middle East at the heart of global insecurity".

"The rivalries between Western allies and its protagonists have returned to geopolitics with a vengeance, with Russia particularly keen to flex its muscles in areas around the world," the IISS outlined.

A resurgence of inter-state conflict, with the most recent period defined by the Russia/Ukraine conflict and Israel's bombardment of Gaza, was also outlined by the study.

This also included the escalation of the longstanding rivalry between Israel and Irany, with what was previously a low-intensity proxy war turning into a direct conflict threatening to suck in the whole region.

The Middle East was outlined by the study as being at the forefront of global insecurity.

The Israel-Palestine conflict has, the IISS pointed out, returned to the centre of Middle Eastern politics.

Hamas's  ties to the "Iran-led Axis of Resistance", which includes non-state armed groups in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, coupled with Israel's aggressive response has risked the conflict "escalating into a full-scale regional war between Israel and Iran".

It said since the 7 October attack and Israel's invasion and bombardment of Gaza, tensions had intensified across the region, and conflict between Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel have resumed.

It was the first direct military clash between Iran and Israel since the founding of the Islamic Republic – with Syria, Iraq and Yemen also being drawn in.

With the US and Western Europe supporting Israel, the IISS said this had forced a regional crisis to become an international one.

A reduction in the UN Security Council's ability to fulfil its role of maintaining peace has also contributed, while international humanitarian law is increasingly under attack.

Named were the wars in Sudan and Gaza as showing marked violations of international humanitarian law by all involved parties. 

This includes state and non-state armed actors showing "a blatant disregard for civilian lives, leading to alarming levels of forced displacement (including 90% of Gazans and 7.7 million internally displaced Sudanese)".