How the Ukraine war could unfold over the next 12 months
At the start of 2023, things in Ukraine looked hopeful - a counter-offensive was expected and there were high hopes Ukraine could make a decisive breakthrough.
But this did not materialise.
Since then, new military aid has dropped by almost 90 per cent and billions of dollars' worth of US funding is stuck, caught up in a Congressional row.
At the same time, Russia is tripling defence spending. So with the conflict in Ukraine about to enter its third calendar year, Forces News has taken a look at where this war in Ukraine will go in 2024.
America's influence and aid
Ukraine's fortunes could change in 2024 particularly if US President Joe Biden's funding bill does make it through, as it will unlock $61bn in military aid.
If F-16 jets enter the battle, Ukrainian troops may get some close air support.
That might enable them to push further south, putting Russian supply lines in range.
However, the consensus seems to be that all that is not likely this year. Russian troops may be getting pushed back, but there is seemingly an endless supply of them.
Drones are making surprise attacks impossible, and Ukraine has seen that launching big, mechanised assaults is just too dangerous.
Also, if Donald Trump wins November's presidential election many think US military aid could be switched off.
Other options
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has floated a peace plan, but it involves Russia pulling all its troops out of Ukraine and facing justice for war crimes in places like Bucha.
Right now that seems very unlikely, with Russia putting 10 per cent of its GDP into its military, and its army is still attacking places like Avdiivka.
Russian President Vladimir Putin believes the West will run out of weapons and political willpower, so all he has to do is wait. He posed the question "why negotiate when you think you can win?". And what if he is right?
"Then we're going to have a real problem," Lieutenant General (Ret'd) Ben Hodges told Forces News.
"If Ukraine fails, the Russians have made it very clear that Ukraine is not their only objective, they talk about Moldova, they talk about Baltic countries.
"When you talk about Baltic countries, we are talking about Nato allies. So that's one of the dangers of this situation.
"If we allow Ukraine to fail, and it would be us allowing Ukraine to fail, then we could very well end up in a conflict where Nato is involved, and then the United States, UK, Germany and other countries would be drawn into the conflict because of our obligation under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, where an armed attack on one is an attack on all."
No sign of giving up
For the time being Ukraine shows no sign of giving up.
The ground offensive may have run out of steam, but it has been successful in targeting Russia's Black Sea Fleet.
Perhaps Ukraine will use 2024 to consolidate and build up its forces, defences and even weapons stockpiles ready to have another go in 2025.
Kyiv needs more weapons and ammunition. The US has supplied 31 Abrams tanks for instance, but that is only enough for three tank companies.
Another option that has been suggested would be for Ukraine to be invited to join Nato sooner rather than later.
That would give Kyiv security guarantees under Article 5 over the territory it currently holds.
Supporters of this idea say the threat of Nato firepower would deter Russia and insulate Ukraine from what might happen in the US elections, potentially making Kyiv "Trump-proof".
The issue for both sides is manpower.
Ukraine is struggling to recruit enough volunteers, and Russia is thought to have lost 315,000 men killed or wounded.
Vladimir Putin could well order another mobilisation once he is re-elected in March.
No one knows where things will be in 12 months. But as it stands neither side has enough resources to knock the other out, so 2024 is unlikely to see the end of this conflict.
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