How US-supplied long-range weapons could help Ukraine wrestle back initiative
Washington has partially lifted its ban on Ukraine firing US weapons across the border into Russia, but America is still not supplying Kyiv with its longest-range missiles.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said this is giving Moscow a sanctuary, allowing its air force to launch deadly glide bombs without even leaving Russian airspace.
As a low-cost, relatively low-tech stand-off weapons, the glide bombs have done much to transform Russian fortunes on Ukraine’s northern front.
The concept is relatively simple.
Take an old Soviet-era bomb, strap on a set of deployable wings and a satellite navigation system and you turn a dumb weapon into a smart-ish precision-guided bomb.
What's made them so effective in Ukraine is not only their power – some weigh one-and-a-half tonnes – but also the fact Russian jets like the SU-34 can launch them without even entering Ukrainian airspace.
But a recent report from the ISW report says Washington's ban on allowing Ukraine to use US weapons against targets inside Russian territory was "absurd".
This, it said, allowed Moscow the freedom to mass 50,000 troops on the border near Kharkiv, while also sending air defence batteries and electronic warfare equipment to Ukraine that would otherwise have to have been kept back to defend rear logistics hubs and air bases.
Kyiv has tried to protect its forces and cities with its own S-300 air defence batteries, but it doesn't have enough of them.
The real answer would be more American Patriot surface-to-air missiles that could take down Russian jets before they release their bombs.
But again, Kyiv doesn't have many and they're too precious to send closer to the frontline.
When they've tried, the Russians have quickly targeted them with short-range ballistic missiles like the Iskander.
The ISW report shows the number of possible targets inside Russia that US missiles could reach.
America has now relented on allowing Ukraine to launch cross-border strikes, but only in the Kharkiv area and only shorter-range mobile rocket artillery like Himars.
For President Biden, sending Ukraine longer range ATACMS, which could hit targets 300km inside Russia, still crosses a red line.
F-16s, when they arrive, will be a help in countering the glide bomb threat.
But if they get too close to the border they too would be vulnerable to Russian MiG31s – operating at high altitude and armed with air-to-air missiles.
While, for now, long-range ATACMS remains off the table, there are questions over how long that can really last.
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