Russian soldiers' enthusiasm for fighting 'significantly less' following Wagner mutiny
A former senior US Commander says Vladimir Putin may try to use the Wagner Group mutiny to justify cutting back his Special Military Operation.
Lieutenant General (Retired) Ben Hodges says the chaos sown by the insurrection could also affect the willingness of Russian soldiers to fight and die in Ukraine.
The mercenary group, Wagner, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, marched on Moscow but stopped short of a possible confrontation with Russian forces.
The Wagner Group's march on Moscow remains a mystery, with their aims yet to be made public knowledge.
Questions have risen such as how did they think their mutiny could succeed and what deal was done to end it before a possible confrontation in the Russian capital.
Also pressing, particularly for Ukraine, is what does the potential loss of Putin's mercenary army mean for the war going forward?
'Big loss' to Russia
Former commander of the US Army in Europe Lt Gen Hodges said: "The loss of potentially 25,000 Wagner troops, that were being used in the fight against in Ukraine will be difficult to replace.
"These are not 25,000 crack paratroopers or something but, nonetheless, they were largely experienced, we saw from the video how well-equipped they are.
"Whether or not any of them are able or decide to go ahead and reregister in the MOD, which I find very unlikely, that's still a big loss, and it will be difficult for the Russians to replace anytime soon."
Russian soldiers' view
Ordinary Russian soldiers have been dying in their thousands in Ukraine, and Lt Gen Hodges believes that these soldiers will be "worried about what's happening above me and behind me".
Lt Gen Hodges said: "If I'm a Russian soldier sitting in a trench, I will be aware to some degree of what has happened. Then I have to be worried about what's happening above me and behind me.
"What soldier wants to die and be terribly wounded in the closing days of a lost cause?"
He added: "If I'm starting to think this whole thing is about to collapse, I don't trust anybody around me, their enthusiasm for fighting is going to be significantly less.
"I think the way the Ukrainian government sees that, so they are already launching pretty sophisticated information efforts."
Russian military 'cupboard is bare'
Fifteen Russian soldiers reportedly died in the mutiny, with Wagner fighters getting to within 250 miles of Moscow largely unopposed.
"It reminded me what UK intelligence had put out several months ago," the retired US Army commander said, "that 95% of the Russian army is committed in Ukraine, so there was nobody else that could stop them as they rolled down the highway."
He added: "So that does really tell me that the cupboard is bare, that there's not a lot of residual Russian military potential waiting to be put into the fight, there is nothing out there."
Putin's narrative twist
Vladimir Putin has undoubtedly been weakened by this insurrection, but Lt Gen Hodges thinks he might even try and turn it to his advantage.
"Interestingly, this could also be an opportunity for Putin to get himself out of this mess, an autocrat can change the narrative whenever he wants.
"He may say, 'It's obvious that we are under attack by all of Nato, this attempted mutiny was a CIA-directed thing, we need to protect the motherland', and then I think there will be a lot less enthusiasm for Donetsk and Luhansk.
"So you could almost envision something like that."
Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who has reportedly denied trying to overthrow Mr Putin's regime, has apparently gone into exile in Belarus – although his chances of surviving there for long look pretty slim.
What happens to his mercenary army now is unclear, with the consequences for Russia, Vladimir Putin and his Special Military Operation still to be played out.
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