Nato would defeat Russia quickly, looking to the future and more: Five key points from CDS' speech
Vladimir Putin doesn't want a conflict with Nato because he knows Russia would "lose quickly", according to the head of the UK Armed Forces as he hailed the alliance's strength.
In a speech at Chatham House on Tuesday, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin played down fears of a war with Russia and said Nato's financial backing vastly outnumbers Moscow and Beijing combined.
Here's a look at five key takeaways from the Chief of Defence Staff's speech.
Putin wary of a Nato showdown
Britain’s defence chief said Vladimir Putin does not want war with Nato because: "Russia will lose. And lose quickly."
Admiral Sir Tony spoke of reflecting on how Russia has struggled in Ukraine, the West's surprise at Moscow's "military weakness" and how Russia’s current "predicament” has been "worsened by a strengthened Nato".
He emphasised that he is not saying that Russia is not dangerous, as it has demonstrated with "aggression it employs both domestically and internationally".
However, the CDS outlined the overwhelming odds Putin would have to overcome to confront, never mind defeat, Nato.
He said: "The inescapable fact is that any Russian assault or incursion against Nato would prompt an overwhelming response.
"Nato's combat air forces – which outnumber Russia's 3 to 1 – would quickly establish air superiority.
"Nato's maritime forces would bottle up the Russian Navy in the Barents and the Baltic, just as Ukraine pushed the Black Sea Fleet from Crimea. Nato has four times as many ships and three times as many submarines as Russia."
Adm Sir Tony also spoke of Russia's failures in Ukraine: "Can we take some time to pause and reflect on Russia's so-called 'Special Military Operation' in Ukraine?
"It was supposed to take between three days and three weeks. It was supposed to subjugate Ukraine's population. It was supposed to take about two thirds of Ukraine's territory. It was supposed to stop Ukraine joining Nato and the EU.
"Putin has failed in all of these strategic objectives. At the operational level, Russia has demonstrated its continued inability to fight in a joint way.
"Its air force has failed to gain control of the air. Its navy has seen 25% of its vessels in the Black Sea sunk or damaged by a country without a navy and Ukraine's maritime trade is reaching back to pre-war levels. Russia's army has lost nearly 3,000 tanks, nearly 1500 artillery pieces and over 5,000 armoured fighting vehicles.
"To pose a realistic threat to Nato's Eastern flank within the next 2-5 years, Russia will need to reconstitute her tanks and armoured vehicles, rebuild her stocks of long-range missiles and artillery munitions and extract itself from a protracted and difficult war in Ukraine."
Nato's defence budget dwarfs Russia and China's
The Chief of the Defence Staff explained how Nato's defence budget is three-and-a-half times more than Russia and China combined.
He said the collective GDP of Nato, which "is becoming stronger all the time", is 20 times greater than Russia's.
The CDS outlined how Nato's manpower continues to swell, as the alliance is growing from 30 to 32 nations, with the accession of Finland and Sweden.
He said: "The thousands of allied troops currently stationed in Poland and the Baltic states could draw on the 3.5 million uniformed personnel across the alliance for reinforcement."
In addition, Adm Sir Tony said the alliance's additional strategic depth is of a population of more than 1 billion.
The UK is safe and conscription is not happening
The CDS referenced "alarmist" remarks regarding Britiain's security outlook, but looked to reassure the people, saying: "We are not on the cusp of war with Russia.
"We are not about to be invaded. No-one in the Ministry of Defence is talking about conscription in any traditional sense of the term."
He told the audience: "Britain is safe. We are safe because we are part of Nato, the world's largest and strongest alliance and also because we are a responsible nuclear power."
He added: "These are dangerous and uncertain times, but Britain has what it needs to succeed.
"Recent talk of a Britain that is undefended, and an Armed Forces chronically imperilled, is way off the mark."
The CDS pointed to Britain's contributions over the past two-and-a-half years, including strengthening the nation's commitment to Nato, bolstering the Baltic states, an Arctic presence, the campaign against so-called Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, leading and galvanising the response in Ukraine, the Sudan evacuation and protecting Red Sea shipping.
"Time-and-again the British Armed Forces have stepped up to do our bit. And that’s without even considering our domestic roles," he said.
The UK looks to the future and not the Cold War
Adm Sir Tony stressed that the UK’s "aim should not be to recreate the Armed Forces of the Cold War".
"We should be looking to the future," he said.
"Modern, lethal, agile Armed Forces that harness and drive our nation's strengths and support the country in every way possible."
The UK military, he said, is looking to the future and undergoing an "extraordinary transformation throughout this decade”.
He outlined how the Army will be at the heart of Nato as one of SACEUR's two strategic reserves and will benefit from £41 billion of new investment.
The Royal Air Force, he continued, is transforming from fourth-generation to fifth-generation aircraft, with a sixth-generation fighter in development.
The CDS said the Royal Navy is a carrier Navy once again "at the heart of an extraordinary nuclear enterprise", with 22 major ships and submarines under construction or on order.
Adm Sir Tony added: "And all this is alongside our biggest capital investment: nuclear. The continuing relevance of nuclear is one of the biggest lessons of Russia's war against Ukraine.
"I've spoken previously about the decaying global architecture of nuclear security, the lapsing and disintegrating arms control treaties, and the total absence of equivalent structures in the Indo-Pacific.
"For established and responsible nuclear powers like the United Kingdom, this is driving us to modernise our nuclear enterprise as a priority. New warheads. New deterrent submarines. New infrastructure and thousands of new jobs."
Getting recruitment right
Adm Sir Tony noted there are always challenges in running "a large organisation that conducts worldwide operations and is as sophisticated as our modern military".
He highlighted how Britain has the "finest people" and some of the best equipment.
He recalled the example of personnel working around the clock to enable HMS Prince of Wales to deploy within days in place of HMS Queen Elizabeth after a problem was found with the flagship's propeller shaft.
Adm Sir Tony said it was "a phenomenal achievement" to get HMS Prince of Wales ready for Exercise Steadfast Defender.
However, he also noted the need for improvement: "We know we need to look after our people better.
"That is why we gained a nearly 10% pay rise for our most junior people last year. That is why we are modernising our accommodation offer to provide more choice, again particularly to our more junior people."
At a time of intense focus on the UK military's size, the CDS reiterated the need to appeal to "young people from every background or either gender or whatever their sexual orientation because we need to attract the best people".
"That's like any large organisation: I know of no big employer that seeks to not be attractive to all these people and then choose the best.
"That's all we are trying to do, as well as applying a simple code that every individual should be able to bring the best of themselves to work in their ambition to serve their country."
He said applications for the Army and Navy are "up 8 -fold and 6-fold".
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