Nato could face Soviet-style mass army within next decade, intelligence warns

New research says within the next decade Nato "could face a Soviet-style mass army" that will pose a significant threat due to its size, firepower and reserves.

Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service's latest annual report has warned of the ramifications of Russia's war in Ukraine.

The report believes that Russia intends "to achieve military dominance in the Baltic Sea region", through a major "military reform" designed to expand its conventional military forces near the Baltic states.

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'Soviet-style mass army'

As well as offering a comprehensive analysis of Russia and the war in Ukraine, it details the implications of the wider security situation in Europe and Russia's stance towards Nato.

"If Russia manages to implement the reform, Nato could face a Soviet-style mass army in the next decade," the Estonian report forewarns.

It adds: "This army is likely to be technologically inferior to Nato allies' defence forces in most areas, except for electronic warfare and long-range strike capabilities.

"However, its military potential would be significant, owing to its size, firepower (including artillery and numerous inexpensive combat drones), combat experience and reserves."

The report highlights: "Defending against a possible conventional attack from such an army would require allied defence forces and defence industries to be significantly more prepared, capable and better-stocked with ammunition and material than they currently are."

Nato threat

In summary, Russia's plan to increase its military forces is ambitious, especially considering the short timeline and Russia's economic and demographic situation.

However, the report adds that it is also a source of threat for Estonia and Nato, contributing to Russia's aggressive posture, military potential and growing militarisation reinforcing Russia's apparent path of a long-term confrontation with the West.

Estonia's officials warned: "The Kremlin is placing its bets on war fatigue in the West and is working to amplify it.

"Putin calculates that without sufficient Western support, Ukraine will find it challenging to withstand Russia in the long term and achieve strategic success."