Russia will win Ukraine war unless Nato approach changes, retired general warns
A Russian victory over Ukraine will become more likely unless Nato and Kyiv can outlearn Moscow, warns a retired Australian Army major general.
It is feared that Moscow is now "outlearning" Kyiv and Nato, while Ukraine is suffering from shortages of soldiers and ammunition.
Major General Mick Ryan, who served in the Australian army for 35 years, explained how Russia's advantages in terms of industrial mobilisation, drone technology and electronic warfare could lead to a victory for Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
He explained: "Tactical adaptation helps you win battles; strategic adaptation helps you win wars.
"One is a military endeavour, the other at the strategic level, is a national endeavour.
"What we've seen, I believe, over the last 18 months, is the Russians have not been as good at the lower-level adaptation because they centralise command and control.
"What the Russians have done, however, is moved ahead of the West in things like mobilising their industry.
"They did that on 22 September 2022, with that partial mobilisation directive. Everyone looked at the conscript mobilisation but embedded in there was mobilisation of industry. So, they're a year ahead of us at least."
That headstart means Russia can quickly scale up production of artillery and drones and what it can't build it buys from Iran and North Korea.
As Russia adapts its weaponry to counteract Ukrainian and Nato approaches to war, new methods must be installed urgently before Moscow gains further advantages.
This includes the combined arms doctrine that the Western allies are teaching Ukrainian soldiers, which General Ryan argues needs to be updated.
He believes Nato must share its most up-to-date training and warfighting lessons with Kyiv and provide Ukraine with more analysis on ways of countering the Russians. Furthermore, the Ukrainian Armed Forces must have more of a say on what weapons or tactics they receive.
This is because, Gen Ryan believes, it is highly likely Russia is now ahead in terms of drone warfare and is equipping its missiles to deceive Ukrainian air defences.
General Ryan believes that the doctrine developed by the allies during the Second World War for mine clearing is not "fit for purpose".
He added: "Even the small amount of engineering equipment that the Ukrainians were given, and it was a very small amount, is decades old in its design philosophy.
"Some of it might be newer, but ploughs, flails, and these kinds of clearance stuff is high signature, it's low density and, because of those things, it indicates straight away where your main effort is.
"And in the new environment, because it's a high-value target, it can be detected and engaged extraordinarily quickly."
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