Review Findings To Be Published 'Before Summer Recess'

The Defence Secretary has refused to confirm that the conclusions of the Modernising Defence Programme (MDP) will be published in time for this week's NATO summit.

Gavin Williamson was asked at Defence Questions to confirm that whether or not the conclusions would be published by Wednesday as originally promised.

He could only commit to releasing the headlines of the report before the summer recess. 

Nia Griffith, Shadow Secretary of State for Defence asked: "Can he now assure the house that the promise to publish before Wednesday's summit still stands?"

Mr Williamson replied:

"What we're aiming to do is introduce the headline findings of the Modernising Defence Programme before the summer recess."

Ms Griffith said: "It is very troubling indeed that the UK risks going to the NATO summit without us being able to offer certainty to our allies about what our future defence capabilities will be."

The Shadow Defence Secretary went on to ask:

"Can the Secretary of State tell us what assurances the Treasury will provide additional funds?"

Mr Williamson responded: "What we see is we see a Conservative Government that this year committed an extra £80 million over the budget that was going to go to the Ministry of Defence."

Last week, the government was unable to confirm whether the outcomes of the review would be delivered by next week's deadline.

Brexit and the MoD Budget: Black Clouds Over Whitehall

By Forces News Westminster Correspondent, Laura Makin-Isherwood

£20.8 billion. That’s how big the National Audit Office believes the Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) budget hole could be.

It’s a shocking figure, and with the MoD’s yearly Treasury allowance sitting at around £37bn, one that is simply too large to ignore.

While some argue it is an exaggeration, a worst case scenario if you will, and that the real figure could be closer to the minimum expected spending gap of £4.9bn, Chair of the Public Accounts Committee, MP Meg Hillier, says the government needs a reality check.

"You’ve got to be honest about what’s achievable," Ms Hillier says.

"We’re worried about amphibious craft, the effect on the Royal Marines, the aircraft carrier programme…these are big projects that are planned far in advance and a small error can cost a lot in terms of money and capability elsewhere."

Right now, the MoD is fighting a perfect storm of political and economic issues.

Through Brexit, the UK’s relationship with Europe is changing, the value of the pound is fluctuating and it’s making estimating the real cost of projects, such as the purchase of 138 F35 jets and the Dreadnought programme, near impossible.

Overall the sense is that costs will escalate. The question that comes from that is ‘Can Britain afford them?’

Gavin Williamson seems to have spotted this could become an issue and has been fighting for more money from the Treasury.

Former Director-General of the Royal United Services Institute, Professor Michael Clarke, believes it will be down to the Prime Minister whether he receives it or not.

"The Defence Secretary has parked his tanks on the treasury’s lawn," Professor Clarke told Forces News.

"If she [the Prime Minister] needs to find another £10bn for defence she could do it through extra borrowing if she chose to."

The Prime Minister, however, maintains that spending 2% of GDP on Defence is enough. It meets NATO requirements. Britain is a leading European nation.

The reality is defence spending is at its lowest in decades – sitting at between 5-6% of GDP through the Cold War, even hitting 8% of GDP in the mid-1980s.

Despite this, Gavin Williamson could have a battle on his hands.

Principle Analyst at Jane’s Defence Budgets for HIS Markit, Fenella McGerty says it’s unlikely the Modernising Defence Programme (MDP) will lead to more money heading from the Treasury to the MoD.

"We are seeing that there’s not an awful lot of money available for defence," she says.

"We’ll need to reassess whether these bigger ticket items are affordable or whether we need to move towards more non-conventional threats, more investment in cyber, electronic warfare or even artificial intelligence."

The MoD has been tasked with finding £16bn worth of efficiency savings by 2027 and says it is on target to meet them.

But there are concerns from many MPs, including those who sit on the Defence Select Committee, that £16bn isn’t enough and more cuts could be on the way.

The MDP should lay out future plans but we're still waiting to hear what the conclusions are.

Julian Lewis: "The decisions we make now about capabilities, we'll have to live with for the next 20, 30, 40 or in the case of aircraft carriers, 50 years."

"We've got to have flexibility in our capabilities otherwise we will be wrong-footed and potentially defeated."