As President Trump suspends military aid to Ukraine, what does it mean for the frontline?
President Trump has suspended all military aid to Ukraine, with officials saying Washington does not believe President Zelensky is committed to a peace deal with Russia.
One senior Ukrainian MP described the decision as "catastrophic," saying thousands will die as a result.
As the suspension takes effect immediately, shipments of aid on their way to Europe, along with those already in Poland waiting to cross into Ukraine, have been halted.
US aid and its impact
Since the start of the war, the US has pledged around $119bn in financial, humanitarian, and military assistance to Ukraine, with $31bn allocated for weaponry.
The military support package has included:
- 300 Bradley fighting vehicles
- 31 Abrams main battle tanks
- 10,000 Javelin anti-tank weapons
- 40 HIMARS artillery rocket systems
- More than 500 million rounds of small arms ammunition
The last major pause in US aid in 2023 – when Senate Republicans blocked a $95bn spending bill – led to severe ammunition shortages on the battlefield.
Europe and Ukraine now provide the bulk of the weaponry being used.
However, much of it is manufactured in the US, raising concerns over whether Mr Trump will freeze those shipments as well.
Despite European efforts to fill the gap, the most advanced systems – such as ATACMS long-range missiles capable of striking deep inside Russia – are still coming from Washington.
Uncertainty over remaining stock
US officials told ABC News that 90% of the military equipment committed to Ukraine has already been delivered – that includes Javelin missile systems and other munitions.
What remains in the pipeline is less clear, although officials suggest it is mostly armoured vehicles and trucks, originally scheduled for delivery by August.
There are also questions over the last $3bn aid package signed by Joe Biden before leaving office, which included critical weaponry for Ukraine's F-16 jets and a shipment of air defence missiles.
Ukraine has existing contracts with private American arms manufacturers that it has already paid for and, so far, there is no indication that the Trump administration will interfere with those.
Can Ukraine fight on without US support?
Asked last month whether Ukraine could survive without US military assistance, President Zelensky gave a bleak assessment: "a very low chance."
Beyond weapons, Ukraine also relies on spare parts for American armour and artillery.
If those supplies dry up, much of its Western equipment could become unusable.
The country is also heavily dependent on US intelligence, satellite imagery, and battlefield communications.
European nations have committed around $40bn in military aid that has yet to be delivered.
Analysts believe this may be enough for Ukraine to hold its ground but not to retake occupied territories and achieve the decisive victory Mr Zelensky wants.
In the short term, Ukraine's cities could suffer the most as stocks of US-made air defence missiles run low.
A move to force peace talks?
Trump insiders insist the freeze is temporary and could be lifted if Mr Zelensky shows more commitment to negotiations.
For many Ukrainians, including those on the frontline, this is further evidence that Donald Trump is trying to force them towards an unpalatable peace.
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