Why did Putin replace his top advisor with 'bean counter' at such a crucial time in the war?
Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, former Commanding Officer 1st Royal Tank Regiment, has examined what the future might hold following Russia's decision to replace its top general with someone with no experience at all.
News this week that President Putin is replacing General Shigou his long-serving defence chief with a civilian seems bizarre at best but also, worryingly, points to his long-term intentions.
The person now in charge of the overall direction of the Russian military is an economist with no military experience at all. But how come?
Putin has sacked or 'killed' most of his combat generals since his ill-fated 'special military operation' – Surovkin and Prigozin to name just two.
This suggests that material and materiel is more important than military strategy.
Does Putin intend to put his arms industry on a total war footing by creating an overwhelming mass of tanks, bullets and soldiers who will eventually outlast the political will of the West?
Certainly, casualty rates in some places are similar to the trenches of the First World War, and the staggering Russian casualties, thought by some to be as high as 400,000 is incomprehensible to western minds, but apparently not Russian ones.
Russia suffered biblical casualties in the Second World War, but Stalin still ruled after Hitler's defeat.
The Russian people's ability to put up with murderous leaders must not remain 'forgotten' by the West.
The 'economist' is no doubt to enable Russian longevity on the battlefield, fuelled by endless ammunition and soldiers Putin is happy to throw into the meat grinder.
Conversely, most Western leaders are more concerned with their own political futures, mostly on the line later this year, than saving Ukraine, even if that might lead to war in Europe again, and their eventual demise.
However, good economic decisions are not always good military ones.
The best military decisions involve risk, boldness, the unexpected and quick execution. This is the converse to good economic ones.
Eventually, it may be the economy which brings Putin down rather than Nato. We must look at this conflict in the long term and must plan years ahead not just months.
If Putin is made to believe this, all his metrics will have to change. His people will only believe his propaganda and disinformation for so long.
Four hundred thousand casualties cannot be kept silent forever, especially as it seems the Kremlin is going to have to call up sons of the white elite in Moscow and St Petersburg as he exhausts his battalions of Eastern ethnic Russians to throw into the meat grinder?
What will the Russian military take to a civilian head of defence?
As a soldier, I'm sure my morale would wobble if I thought a 'bean counter' was making all the decisions. It is true that hitherto most Russian generals have been either inept, crocked or both.
Since time immemorial, 'moral' has been 'as ten is to one the physical', and Russians will stop going 'over the top' if they see no point even if there is a gun to their back as well as their front.
What Putin's latest decision indicates along with his speech to the Kremlin on 9 May, is that he will keep fighting or die trying.
He is not going to acquiesce, cares little for his people and has developed a blinkered, hatred of the West.
The only way to stop him is to show Nato military power or hope one of the other gangsters in the Kremlin removes him, which sadly at the moment seems vanishingly unlikely.
It is time Western leaders got on the front foot and give Putin difficult things to think about rather than just being reactive to his threats and bully boy tactics.
To do this, we must put Nato boots on the ground and in the air, in Ukraine firmly on the table.
This is exactly what Putin does not want, but what most Western leaders have told him will not happen.
This is a very good example of how politicians and civilians should not get involved directly with military operations especially if they have no combat experience, which is virtually all of them.
If the new Russian Defence chief does this, hoorah, but I doubt Putin will allow this, or certainly not for long.
At least now we know Putin's plan is all about outlasting Nato.
Nato has overwhelming military firepower over Russia and must indicate now that it is prepared to use it indirectly or directly against Russia to ensure we do not slip into another war in Europe in the next 12 to 18 months.
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