Analysis: India believes wrath of the West less important than staying friends with Moscow
Along with North Korea, Iran and China, Russia has one more key ally on the global stage – India.
Since the start of the war In Ukraine, the world's biggest democracy has walked a diplomatic tightrope, calling for an end to hostilities, but stopping short of condemning Vladimir Putin's invasion.
So why is India so keen to keep Moscow on side?
It's been described as 'strategic ambivalence'.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, India has abstained from UN Security Council votes condemning Moscow and – formally at least – taken a neutral position on the war.
In many ways, it is an inconsistent position – not least because at the same time as tolerating Russian aggression, India is also backing the US in its attempts to limit China's aspirations in the Indo-Pacific.
This week Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi travelled to Russia for two days of talks with Vladimir Putin – his first visit since the start of the war.
The two leaders hugged, took tea, and even watched a horse show.
As Mr Modi met the Russian president at his palatial residence outside Moscow, Russian missiles were raining down on Ukrainian cities, killing dozens of civilians and injuring scores more.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has called the visit a "huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts".
So, what is behind India's neutrality?
At the heart of it is a cold diplomatic calculation about how alienating Russia would harm New Delhi's security.
Chief among them is what India perceives as the joint threats of China and Pakistan. Both Beijing and Islamabad want closer ties to Moscow.
India sees its friendship with Russia as a way of containing that growing embrace and protecting its interests.
The warmth between Moscow and New Delhi dates back to the 1950s.
India has taken similarly tolerant positions over Russian interventions in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Afghanistan.
In return, Moscow has supported India's claims to Kashmir and used its veto in the UN six times on India's behalf.
Another factor is India's deep dependence on Russia for military hardware. India has a large arsenal of Russian-made weapons and depends on Moscow for spares and support.
Unlike many Western nations, Russia is willing to provide New Delhi with high-tech strategic weaponry and the two countries have worked together to develop new systems which can then be manufactured in India at lower cost.
Since the war began India has also snapped up vast quantities of cheap Russian oil, injecting a billion rupees – about £9m – into Russian coffers each month, money Mr Putin needs for his so-called 'special military operation'.
Last year, trade between the two countries was worth nearly $65bn (£50bn), with most of it going to Russia.
But this neutral stance comes with political risks for India. On Ukraine, New Delhi rather bizarrely finds itself in the same diplomatic camp as China and Pakistan – its sworn adversaries.
There's also no sign that India is having any influence over growing Sino-Russian relations.
The UK Government recently announced it had intelligence that Beijing is supplying Russia with 'non-lethal aid' for the war.
There's also the matter of Russia’s defence industry.
With sanctions biting and Moscow's war machine already running hot, what happens if Russia is unable to supply India with the weapons it wants?
Indeed, historically, many of the parts were made in Ukraine and Kyiv could, if it so decides, turn off the tap to spares.
The bottom line, say many experts, is that India believes the wrath of the West is far less important than staying friends with Moscow.
Whatever President Biden may say, it calculates that Washington will forgive its neutrality because of its role in confronting China.
So, for now, India is weaving a course all its own, ascending the global stage while also ducking any deep alliances that it feels will limit its ability to pivot.
While the West may want Mr Modi to cast Vladimir Putin aside, political reality says it is unlikely to happen.
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