Sitrep: Biden tied one hand behind Ukraine's back, but Trump has blindfolded them
A former military attaché to both Ukraine and Russia has said Ukraine was being forced to fight one-handed under the last US administration, but it is now much worse.
John Foreman, who served in the role to both Moscow and Kyiv, was a guest on the latest episode of BFBS's Sitrep podcast – which analyses the top defence stories of the week and is available wherever you get your podcasts.
"I may have said last year that Biden had been forcing the Ukrainians to fight with one hand tied behind their back," he said.
"And Trump's now put the manacles on and now blindfolded the Ukrainians and they're very much on the military back foot."
It comes after the US announced a freeze on military aid and intelligence-sharing with Ukraine.
France offered to step in and try and fill the gap left by the US in regards to intelligence, but Mr Foreman said this was not much of a replacement.
Professor Michael Clarke, Sitrep's resident expert, said this would hit Ukraine hard.
"The intelligence pause is debilitating from now on for as long as it lasts," he said.
"Every day will be tough for the Ukrainians for as long as that intelligence is withheld." He also concurred with Mr Foreman about Ukraine's position, adding that Kyiv would start to see the effect "immediately".
He also said an even bigger vulnerability was StarLink, the Elon Musk-based satellite system.
"Elon Musk originally was very generous in providing that to the Ukrainians, and it was a huge advantage to them," he said.
"And they worked a lot of their own systems, which they improvised very effectively using StarLink as the base.
"If StarLink is turned off for their use then, although the Europeans have started to think quite urgently about how they might replace it, again, there's no easy replacement for that.
“StarLink could be turned off as another ratchet that's going to be turned on Ukraine because that would make another big, big difference to their ability to carry on fighting."
He also said that while Ukraine does still have a fair few supplies, it doesn't have the large ammunition stocks that only the United States can provide.
"I mean, lots of 155 artillery shells and lots of missiles for the MLRS missile system and the HIMARS missiles… and the JTACMS missiles," he said.
"So if they're restricted, they'll feel the loss of those really quite quickly.
"The pipeline is, in a sense, good for another four or five months.
"But what will be in the pipeline for another four or five months is less and less what makes a big difference to the Ukrainians."
Both guests agreed that Ukraine is not in the position it was in 2022 – with a much stronger defence industry than when Russia first invaded.
But there is still a big hole left by the US in terms of supplies, logistics, training, spare parts for existing kit and repairs.
Prof Clarke suggested the biggest change in strategy that might be adopted by the Western powers is to actually give the €210bn in frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.
"As we are saying, they lack the cash to run their own defence industries at a much higher level and to buy on the open market in the world market, what they need," he explained.
"The argument is we are in such extraordinary circumstances now, the best thing we could do would be to actually just take the leap, give that cash."
You can listen to Sitrep wherever you get your podcasts, including on the Forces News YouTube channel.
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