Sitrep: Could 2025 be the year UK personnel have boots on the ground in Ukraine?

Next year could see a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine, with British troops suggested as prime candidates to lead some sort of force in a demilitarised zone.

Resident expert Professor Michael Clarke has been looking into the crystal ball for what could happen in 2025 on this week's BFBS Sitrep podcast – which analyses the top defence stories of the week and is available wherever you get your podcasts.

"If there is going to be some sort of ceasefire, then Britain would expect, and everybody else would expect, that Britain would be… certainly one of the leading players in implementing some sort of deal, at least a truce if we can arrive at that," Prof Clarke said.

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He also said a demilitarised zone is being talked about in Ukraine if a ceasefire deal can be reached, but this still leaves a lot of questions.

"You've got to ask yourself 'well, how many troops would it need?'," Prof Clarke said.

"I mean, a DMZ would be at least 1,000 kilometres long, so you're probably talking a minimum of about six or seven brigades of European troops.

"So could Britain provide one of those brigades? Yes, it could.

"But then you've got to ask yourself 'well, what would be the rules of engagement?'.

"Yes, it could occupy them as a UN peacekeeping force would, and observe what goes on and monitor what goes on."

But, Prof Clarke said, if there was some sort of break from one of the sides, would the peacekeeping force fight? Could it?

"Who would pay for it? How long would it have to stay there?" he asked.

"These questions are huge questions, but we're not going to get anywhere if all the European countries say 'well, we're not going to have anything to do with it'."

While he does not think the fighting will stop in Ukraine next year, he suggested there might be a truce.

"We'll see how stable that is," he said. "I don't think it would be particularly stable myself, but it would depend on the terms of it and what backs it up."

There is also talk of British troops deploying to Ukraine to help train Kyiv's forces should there be a break in the fighting.

Prof Clarke said this would likely be part of the same process that would create security guarantees for the Ukrainians in the case of a ceasefire.

"If there was some sort of truce or armistice, then part of that process of creating security guarantees would be a much more intensive training programme," he said.

"And if it involved European troops in Ukraine, that would increase the deterrent effect."

He said this would not see Nato in Ukraine, but the European countries bilaterally helping Ukrainian forces "maybe even quite close to the frontlines".

"Because we'd be talking about a ceasefire, not an active war in which, let's say, west European troops of one sort or another might be within 30 or 40 kilometres of the frontline doing training jobs," he said.

"That's entirely plausible."

You can listen to Sitrep wherever you get your podcasts, including on the BFBS Forces News YouTube channel.