Nato needs to be prepared for an Arctic showdown – but are the UK Armed Forces ready?
Whether it wants to admit it or not, the UK is at war with Russia, and the Arctic is one arena that sees Britain lacking in assets, an expert has warned.
Professor Klaus Dodds from Royal Holloway University, spoke to BFBS Forces News about how the vast expanse once considered isolated and inaccessible is finding itself a hotspot for global competition.
Climate change has reshaped the Arctic's icy borders and geopolitical tensions have risen, and while the UK is not an Arctic state, it does have skin in the game.
"We have to recognise there are countries that actively wish us harm and no amount of diplomacy is going to change that," the geopolitics professor said.
"We are a North Atlantic nation, and the North Atlantic and Arctic are connected to one another.
"Russia is a bad faith actor, Russia is a party that wishes us harm, and through the Arctic and North Atlantic, Russia projects force.
"We are, dare I say it, at war with Russia.
"At the moment it is hybrid war, it's not necessarily always direct, but we have got to understand that the Arctic and North Atlantic are pivotal strategic regions."
Russia can project its force in the region as it has five of the largest and most powerful icebreakers globally.
They ensure year-round navigation along the Northern Sea Route.
The UK, however, does not.
UK's Arctic capabilities
Prof Dodds said Britain does not have enough polar assets, including helicopters, frigates and icebreakers, which means two things.
"We have to continue to work well in partnership with our allies," he said.
"Secondly, and this is always true of defence, you have to take a long-term view and actually think we need to invest now, in my opinion, in at least one more polar-capable vessel.
"Because at the moment we have HMS Protector going up and down like a yo-yo between the Arctic and the Antarctic every other season.
"We need at least two HMS Protectors, not one."
But why would the UK care?
Why global warming is making the Arctic a hotspot
Well, the Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the planet, leading to receding ice that's opening up previously inaccessible shipping routes.
Between 2013 and 2023, the distance sailed by ships in the Arctic more than doubled and the number of ships operating in the region increased by 37% – that is an extra 500 ships.
Beneath the ice lies an estimated 13% of the world's undiscovered oil and 30% of its natural gas reserves – or 160 billion barrels of oil.
So you can see why there's growing interest, with Russia dominating the Arctic.
It controls more than half of the region's coastline, that's 24,000km, and it has been expanding its military footprint.
Since 2005, Russia has reopened tens of Arctic Soviet-era military bases and new ones, as well as modernised its navy and has developed new hypersonic missiles.
The region is "indispensable" to the UK, Professor Caroline Kennedy-Pipe, War Studies, Loughborough University, explained to BFBS Forces News.
This is due to the communication cables running through it and the "imperative nature of keeping eastern sea lanes open for our security".
While this has always been the case, it has become more pertinent lately.
Russia's war in Ukraine has seen Finland and Sweden join Nato, meaning seven of the eight Arctic nations are Nato members.
Moscow isn't impressed.
Prof Kennedy-Pipe said the Arctic is now an "arena for great power competition, a site of potential nuclear confrontation, and... a place in which the Russians operate under the threshold".
"[It's] a site of grey zone activities and, many of us believe, a place in which vigilance is called for as Arctic states come to terms with this new threat assessment," she said.
China's Arctic ambitions
It is not just Russia though, with China seeing the financial benefits of new shipping routes and has declared itself a "near-Arctic state".
"Since 2018/19...China has emerged in a key alliance with Russia to exploit the Northern Sea Route, to drill for oil and other resources, and for China it is absolutely imperative that it can access raw earth minerals to keep its economy going," Prof Kennedy-Pipe said.
This has the US and Canada worried.
Both are talking about stepping up their military presence in the region, and so too are Nordic nations.
The UK isn't an Arctic state, but the Government says it recognises the importance of the region.
Prof Kennedy-Pipe explained that while the UK "may be a long way from the Arctic… we regard the Arctic and High North certainly as our backyard".
"In terms of our security, we need to ensure freedom of navigation into the eastern Atlantic through the UK, Greenland, Iceland gap," she said.
"And we certainly, in terms of our dependence on Norway for energy, we will want to keep access and our performance in the Arctic clear for all to see."
So the Arctic's rapidly melting ice is more than an environmental crisis – it's reshaping the geopolitics of the High North.
For the UK, staying relevant in the Arctic isn't optional.
The region is critical for safeguarding Nato's northern flank and protecting UK security.
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