Russia's Black Sea Fleet preparing for blockade on Ukraine, MOD says
Russia's Black Sea Fleet is preparing to "enforce a blockade on Ukraine", according to the UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) as it warned there could be more violence in the region.
In an intelligence update, the MOD said the fleet has "altered its posture" since Moscow pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) which guaranteed Ukrainian grain to be safely exported through the sea for a year.
The MOD reports the Russian corvette Sergey Kotov has deployed to the southern Black Sea, patrolling a shipping lane between Odesa and the Bosphorus.
Russian state media on Tuesday morning claimed unmanned Ukrainian boats attacked the vessel overnight and were destroyed.
According to the MOD, there is a "realistic possibility" the Sergey Kotov will be part of a task group to intercept commercial vessels Russia believes are heading to Ukraine.
"The BSGI has moderated the involvement of the Black Sea in the war: there is now the potential for the intensity and scope of violence in the area to increase," the MOD said in its intelligence report.
Russia has said all vessels heading to Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea will be "regarded as potentially carrying military cargo".
Ukraine responded by saying it would treat all vessels travelling to Russian ports and Ukrainian ports occupied by Russia as also potential carriers of military equipment.
Moscow had generally refrained from striking civil infrastructure in Ukrainian southern ports, between August 2022 and June 2023, due to the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
The deal, brokered by Turkey and the United Nations, was broken off earlier this month by Russia in a move that sparked fresh concerns about global food security as the war drags on.
In recent days Russia has fired dozens of missiles and drones at the Odesa region, a key Ukrainian hub for exporting grain.
As Russia failed to renew the deal, the MOD says the Kremlin likely feels less politically restrained and is targeting Odesa as it believes Ukraine is storing military assets in those areas.
In a phone call on Tuesday, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that the UK was working with Turkey to revive the initiative and was continuing to monitor the situation.
The MOD's daily intelligence update on Wednesday came after Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said Russia could target civilian ships in the Black Sea in a bid to "destroy" Ukraine's exports following the collapse of the grain deal.
He said: "The UK believes that Russia may escalate its campaign to destroy Ukraine’s food exports by targeting civilian ships in the Black Sea.
"Russia should stop holding global food supplies hostage and return to the deal."
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said Russia will return to the grain deal if its demands over exports are met.
Moscow has claimed that restrictions on shipping and insurance have hampered its own exports of food and fertiliser – which it argues are also critical to the global food chain.
The Russian Black Sea Fleet's main base is in Sevastopol, Crimea, which, according to UK intelligence, has likely had its defences bolstered with a number of dolphins trained to counter enemy divers.
A drone explosion hit the headquarters in July last year and the Black Sea Fleet's flagship, the Moskva, was sunk in the early months of the Ukraine conflict.
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