Comment: Atrocities, Bombing, Terror & Chaos: Welcome To 2016

2016 will be a sinister affair. That's what they are saying in the darker alleys of Whitehall and across the river at MI6 on the Albert Embankment.

The oil guys in the Middle East say Islamic State is working up to a big 'nasty'. Hits in as many European capitals as they can manage on the same day, making the Paris attacks look like a hooligan mugging. The Middle East oil industry, who financially have the most to lose and twice that to protect, have been known to get it right.

They say it'll unfold along the lines of this: four or five organisers with long placed hitters in seven or eight capitals. Museums are easy targets, metros, theatres. Everyone dies in the third act. Yup -there's a lot of black humour out there. Why the third act? Security is sharper in Act I and Act 2. Act 3 has a 'It Won't Be Tonight' feel.

On the wider screen for 2016, Libya is the hardest one to tackle. The factions are still spilling blood, and revenge is easy done. France and UK are all for getting in there with air support, intelligence gathering, special forces reconnaissance (the SAS's original role) and smart diplomacy. The trouble is no one knows for certain where IS has got to in Libya, and most importantly, who is running it there.

In the Middle East proper there is every chance of a strong US-Russia partnership developing in Syria. Russia without a hint of apology is intent on whacking as many anti-Assad rebels as possible before going the extra distance on some form of election.  

Here's something that is not going to change in 2016 unless President Assad is taken down by his own people - palace revolutions will be a general feature through the world of British interests.

Moscow clearly believes that Assad is the best bet in Syria. A lot of people at the US State Department agree but it is never going to be official policy. Especially as in Mosco, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov could be running Putin. Watch those two names next year.

Everything is tugging Washington, and Westminster into further involvement in the big places it failed in during the past decade. 

The future of Afghanistan is in the hands of Pakistan and always has been. So watch for increased training programmes and arms supplies from the Pakistan military to Taliban. Watch also for the Taliban’s biggest enemy in Afghanistan in 2016 - Islamic State.  

And one other to watch: Why do few talk Israel in the bigger picture about IS? They will in the year to come.. watch Jerusalem.

It is all heady stuff and somehow makes the UK's MoD headaches pretty low budget stuff. But the work is underway to see how much of a battle group or a force projection the carrier programme could make. One carrier means six or so frigate/destroyer escorts plus a couple of submarines.  

In spite of promises, paying for all this is a hard call. But the toughie for all three services to be sorted in 2016 is manpower. A great tri-service fighting force emerging from the 2015 SDSR - but with fewer and fewer people with on-going training programmes to "man" them. 

The biggest event of 2016 will be on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November - when the US votes for a new President. On November 9 they will wake in every city anywhere you can name and ask Who Won? They should do. The new incumbent will be the most important person in the whole world.

On present showing the presidential election will be the most racially influenced vote in decades. Meanwhile the current tenant on 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, the 44th President, will be ending his term by going after Islamic State in the biggest way he can.

And that is almost it, except for the little matter of the election of a new Secretary General of the United Nations. Ban Ki-moon goes on December 31, 2016. Who gets the job? No one knows. My money, against all the odds called thus far, is on a Bulgarian, foreign minister Irina Bokova.  

But what do I know?

Christopher Lee is the BFBS Defence Analyst and can be heard every week on Sitrep, the only radio programme devoted to discussing the big issues in Defence.