Comment: Terror? Slaughter? This Is ISIL On The March

The analyst on a France24 news programme said ISIL has brought its war to Europe. With the station's headline saying 130 people are dead and scores of others critical, that sounds about right. 

The blood is still on the pavement outside the Bataclan theatre and the bit of poster left says the band playing was The Eagles of Death Metal. It does not get much worse. Or maybe it does.

If ISIL is 'out of area' as the security people here are calling it, then the next targets may seem obvious: Christmas late openings in department stores, carol services, Santa grottos, car ferries or maybe motorway service stations.

The ISIL operation on Friday night was highly organised. The killers knew how to go about their business. The timing and coordination meant rehearsal and professional reconnaissance - helped by Paris' lack of CCTV. 

The hit on cafe society was, at the least, a diversion that confused security communications and spread response resources. The manner of the gunmen, including the unhurried reloading of weapons, and the relentless killing was a reminder that until the police showed up they were committed to a one-way mission. And they were highly motivated and trained to succeed in that.

So, if there is more to come what is there to be done? There is a three part answer. 

The French say the eight terrorists are dead. But what about the others? This was no small group operation. There is, somewhere, a back-up organisation. 

In France there are large radicalised and disaffected Muslim groupings. French security have top intelligence on them. They have to be scoured for and further suspects dug out, or at the very least disrupted. But the French security forces, like those of most other nations, are over-stretched.

Secondly, the leaders of the Global Coalition fighting ISIL have to examine their own capabilities in going after first the leadership, and then the financial, industrial and supply stores that keep the logistics moving. That means blatant military cooperation with countries and organisations that otherwise would be shunned. Iran is an example. President Assad is another.

Thirdly, everyone needs to examine their political motives. There is a lot more that could be done to take on ISIL in a powerful manner.  ISIL's image is an exaggerated example of its capability. It is not invincible. 

Put alongside what is happening in the Middle East, what happened on Friday night is, militarily, not such a big deal.  ISIL is beatable.

But Global Coalition members have to be willing to commit themselves to the political bravery needed to authorise close encounter operations - you cannot beat ISIL with drones alone.  

If you do beat ISIL, then what? The sentiment that spawned the fanatical group would not be dead, just dormant.

Christopher Lee is BFBS' Defence Analyst. He can be heard on SItrep, the only weekly radio programme devoted to discussing the big issues in Defence. Click here to Listen Again or download the podcast here.