Ukraine: Only Russia would benefit from blowing up Nova Kakhovka dam, expert says

Only Russia would benefit from blowing up the Nova Kakhovka dam near Kherson, a defence expert has told Forces News.

Russia has accused Ukraine of plotting to blow up the dam, which Kyiv denies, as Moscow forces remain on the back foot in the Kherson region.

Military expert and Royal Armoured Corps veteran Justin Crump told Forces News that it would make no sense for Ukraine to hit the dam as it looks to recapture the region. 

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He said: "The act of blowing the dam, were they to do that, gives them a military advantage if they are back across the river, in that they can make it very, very hard to cross south of the dam.

"And it stops Ukrainians from actually crossing at the dam itself."

Russia has been able to "keep supplies flowing across there to a certain extent, they want to deny that to Ukrainians, so blowing the dam would do that", the expert said.

"It's not to say they (the Russians) wouldn't do it", but, Mr Crump added that "it's most likely the Russians would".

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"It's really not in Ukraine's interest to do it at this point and it would make an obstacle crossing for them much harder over the winter.

"So there is only one side that benefits from the dam being blown at this point," he added.

The dam is a focal point for a number of reasons. It is one of the "most sustainable crossing points of the river", it maintains the reservoir for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and is also at the entrance to the Crimea canal, which runs water down to Crimea.

Mr Crump believes the Russians, "having held it (Kherson) all summer, they've had the chance to top up the reservoirs in the Crimea... so they could afford to lose control for a period of time but, none the less, it remains a strategic objective to control the area".

Ukraine's offensive to retake Kherson – an important port city that sits in a key strategic location west of the Dnipro river – is "slow and steady", according to Mr Crump.

And the military expert added that Ukraine is "in the position to keep that offensive going, keep wearing down the Russians", although "it's not going to be a pushover".

However, he did highlight that "the Russians (would be) equally hoping the Ukrainians break themselves trying to get through Russian lines".