Trump tipped to maintain military focus on Indo-Pacific, but at a cost to Europe
Donald Trump is not expected to alter the United States' military efforts in the Indo-Pacific, but that might come at a cost to Europe, according to a defence expert.
Malcolm Chalmers, the deputy director general of the Royal United Services Institute, pointed out how the world is now very different from what it was during Mr Trump's first term in office.
"Most of all, we have an ongoing war in Ukraine and indeed an ongoing war in the Middle East," he said.
"And President Trump's response to those conflicts is going to be absolutely determinative of his whole presidency.
"In terms of the Indo-Pacific, I think it's a bit less clear where things will go."
The Indo-Pacific is one of the world’s most strategically sensitive regions, where China is rapidly expanding its influence.
Beijing is strengthening its armed forces, building alliances, advancing in technology and challenging the global balance of power.
"I think initially, the biggest source of concern in relations between the United States and Asia will not be on security," Mr Chalmers added.
"It will be on his proposals for radical increases and tariffs globally, but particularly in relation to China, which, if he follows through on those commitments, will have a profound effect on the global economy.
"But, in relation to military security, I think it's pretty clear that the United States was already on an accelerated trajectory to focus more of its military efforts on the Indo-Pacific.
"And given that I don't think the American defence budget is going to increase very sharply under the Trump presidency, that means doing less elsewhere, not least in Europe."
Greg Bagwell, a retired air marshal who served as Deputy Commander (Operations) at RAF Air Command, suggested Mr Trump's success would not go down well in Beijing.
Air Mshl Bagwell posted on X: "China will become a significant focus, either through a trade lens or a security one – with trade being the means to control or worsen the latter.
"So the question is how tough will Trump be with Xi [President Xi Jinping] and how supportive will he be of Taiwan?
"I doubt China will be relishing a Trump term. For all his faults, his unpredictability and his hard man style will cause pause for thought.
"Expect Trump to engage early, and keep an eye out for those promised tariffs – it could go either way."
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