Analysis: Ukraine's chances of a decisive breakthrough as counter-offensive begins
Ukraine's long-anticipated counter-offensive has certainly begun but, despite claiming to retake several occupied villages, Kyiv's decisive breakthrough is not close, writes Forces News' Ukraine correspondent Simon Newton.
Nearly a week in, and there's no doubt that Ukraine's counter-offensive is well under way.
Probing attacks have continued along the frontline with Ukrainian forces claiming to have seized a number of villages and settlements from Russian control.
But it has been tough going, and the gains – although significant – have only been a few kilometres at most.
The decisive breakthrough Kyiv, and its Western backers, want to see is still some way off.
The pushes have been focused on some key areas: the boundary area between Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblast; southwestern Zaphorizhzhia and the area around the now infamous city of Bakhmut.
From the Ukrainian side, there's little solid information about what is happening on the ground. Kyiv has imposed strict operational security measures to keep its plans secret.
Much of the information is coming from Russian milbloggers and other Ukraine watchers across social media channels like Telegram.
Near the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk borders the settlements of Neskuchne, Storozheve, Blahodatne, and Makarivka were captured by Ukrainian forces.
These villages are important because they lie along the key TO158 road in western Donetsk, a road that runs north-south all the way to the occupied city of Mariupol, 75 miles to the south.
A push here could be the start of a potential Ukrainian thrust to cut the Russian-occupied land corridor that runs along the Sea of Azov from Russia itself in the east to Russian-occupied Crimea in the west.
And that theory gains a bit more weight when you look at where else the Ukrainians are advancing.
Sixty miles to the west of the TO158, in southwestern Zaporizhzhia, they are also trying to advance, toward the key town of Tokmak.
Here they have made very small gains but also lost significant amounts of Western equipment.
On Thursday, Ukraine's 47th brigade was hit by a Russian drone ambush as it pushed through a minefield.
The Russian Ministry of Defence was quick to release footage claiming to show a number of Leopard 2 tanks and at least six US-supplied Bradley fighting vehicles either badly damaged or destroyed.
Among them were three mine-breaching Leopards – known as the 2R. Finland supplied Kyiv with six of them but half are now out of action.
If they do make some headway here though, with the aim of eventually reaching Melitopol, it could be the second half of a pincer movement designed to cut Russian forces in two.
Experts say the loss of valuable Western equipment is unfortunate, but probably an unavoidable cost of this difficult phase of the operation.
Join Our Newsletter
