Russian tanks rolling towards Paris not in European mindset, defence committee told

While the United States has been getting ready to fight a war, Europe does not know who it would be fighting against – despite the conflict in Ukraine, an analyst has said.

Dmitry Grozoubinski, the founder of the ExplainTrade consultancy, made the remarks to the House of Lords' International Relations and Defence Committee.

"The fundamental difference between Europe and the United States is that on defence is that the US has been preparing to fight a war, potentially, and it has a very clear idea of who the enemy in the war might be," Mr Grozoubinski said.

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"It has been very difficult in Europe to identify who Europe might conceivably fight.

"Certainly, in many capitals around Europe, they did not believe they would ever be in a position to fight Russia, even in an asymmetrical proxy war sense."

Mr Grozoubinski, who is Ukrainian, added "we told you so" in respect of the three-year-long conflict following the illegal Russian invasion of his country.

But he said European leaders do not think a Russian invasion of a wider Europe is likely.

"I think the bogeyman of Russian tanks rolling towards Paris is not something that European leaders in their heart of hearts believe could happen or will happen," he said.

The committee heard from another expert, who said Washington believes other countries aren't pulling their weight when it comes to defence spending.

Michael Gasiorek, Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex, was speaking about the UK's future relationship with the US.

"What does seem to be the case is that the US administration feels that other countries don't contribute sufficiently to a range of international organisations, including Nato and defence spending," Mr Gasiorek said.

"And almost certainly countries will need to respond and boost that [defence spending]."  

The trade expert added that the issue of defence spending was difficult to speculate about, given that the world does not know where "Donald Trump's attention and concern will focus next".

The response came after a question by Lord Houghton of Richmond on the disparity in the economics of the defence relationship between Europe and the United States in terms of spending on Nato.

Lord Houghton posed the question ahead of the Nato summit in June at the Hague in the Netherlands.

Mr Grozoubinski agreed with Mr Gasiorek that the US is unhappy with the level of investment European countries provide for defence and national security issues.

"I don't think the US is ever going to be satisfied with the commitment that Europeans make to defence or to national security issues more broadly," he said. 

The UK Government announced an increase in defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 back in February this year.

The defence budget was further boosted by an additional £2.2bn in 2025/26, as announced in Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Spring Statement.