Owned by Norway, inhabited by Russians: Could UK troops end up fighting here?
As the High North gains in strategic importance, the Svalbard archipelago shifts into focus, and while it's Norwegian territory, Russia maintains rights to a presence here under a 1920 treaty.
The UK has committed to strengthening the defence of the High North with increased troop deployments, carrier strike group operations and active leadership in Nato and joint regional exercises.
But does this leave British forces more exposed in a known Russian stronghold?
Norway can't say no to Russia
Svalbard lies approximately 580 miles from Norway, but it is not much further on the other side from Russia's Kola Peninsula, the home base of the mighty Northern Fleet.
Svalbard is also adjacent to two critical naval choke points, the Bear Gap between Svalbard, Bear Island and the Norwegian mainland, and the GIUK-gap between Greenland, Iceland and the UK.
Greyzone expert Elisabeth Braw, the author of the Undersea War, warns Russian activity is ramping up on Svalbard.
"All they would need to do is for the Russians who live there, who could arrive to live there or say they wanted to live there, for them to disrupt daily lives," she said.
"And it would be truly disruptive. And yet [Norway] couldn't say 'no Russians allowed' because Russians are allowed on Svalbard.
"And I think that's a scenario that we are more likely to see that than a straight invasion by the Russian armed forces."
A perfect storm
And Svalbard is at the centre of a new revelation about Russian submarine activity.
Back in April, the Ministry of Defence released images of the Olenya Guba naval base, located in an inlet of the Barents Sea on the Kola Peninsula.
It's home to the secretive undersea research unit known as GUGI, and in the spring the MOD revealed a joint UK and Norwegian operation had tracked GUGI submarines around UK waters.
What we didn't know then is, according to Reuters reporting, Nato allies also caught GUGI subs around Svalbard, training to unleash a secret weapon designed to disable critical undersea cables without leaving any fingerprints.
Speaking before these fresh claims were reported, Ms Braw was already warning about a potential perfect storm for the Royal Navy and other Nato powers in the High North.
"What I know we are seeing are two related developments, both quite troubling, both taking place in the ocean waves," she said.
"One is threats and incidents involving seabed infrastructure. The other one is the expansion of the Russian submarine fleet, which again encompasses boats that are really good, and are nothing like the Russian submarines of old that were frankly of a lower quality than Western ones."
Svalbard's critical location makes the undersea cables here an especially attractive target. Vast amounts of satellite data are downloaded and sent around the world via two 1,400km slimline fibre optic cables.
The Reuters report says anonymous Western officials confirmed the joint UK/Norwegian and American operation in the spring prevented GUGI vessels completing their exercise.
But if Russia did want to ramp up its hybrid campaign against Nato, attacking these cables would be one way it could create chaos and seriously raise the temperature for UK forces in the region.
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