Comment: First We Take IS, Then We Take Assad

This autumn should see the tide turn against Islamic State. This will elongate President Assad’s survival, but ultimately could lead to the transition to a post Assad Syria.

When it comes to seemingly intractable problems, the summer is a time when, after other options have been exhausted, the chess pieces move without much attention being paid.

Many people are on holiday, including in the media, but when school starts again, we see that some people were busy over the summer and that things might change.

Most summers bring ‘under the radar’ diplomatic activity on various issues ahead of the annual United Nations General Assembly in New York, and the most difficult problems are often the ones worked on by ‘sherpas’ to see if they can allow the Presidents and Prime Ministers to go for glory in the autumn.

This week the Saudi ruler, King Salam goes to Washington D.C. to meet President Obama. At that point the chess moves will come into focus.

Over the summer US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov met in Doha. The Saudis were in on one of the meetings. Separately President Assad’s intelligence chief was in Riyadh, and the Syrian Foreign Minister was in Oman (a key Middle East go between).

Meanwhile in Moscow, Iran’s Quds Force commander Major General Qasem Soleimani showed up, closely followed by King Abdullah of Jordan, President Sissi of Egypt and Shaikh Mohammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi who met jointly with President Putin. A delegation from the Syrian opposition was also received in Moscow.

Separately, the Turks and Americans came to an agreement that the US military can use the Incirlik air base in Turkey which looks likely to lead to a serious onslaught on Islamic State this month from both the air and the ground in Syria and Iraq.

It appears that two things have become apparent to most of the outside state actors in the Syrian tragedy.

First, that the threat from Islamic State is so great that countries with conflicting interests on many other issues can come together to meet it. Secondly, that the Syrian civil war cannot be ‘won’ by any of the participants, and their foreign backers, and so it is worth at least exploring a compromise deal.

First though, Saudi, the USA, the Russians, Iranians, and others must deal with ISIS.

The Americans and Turks will begin to hammer them this month. At the same time it appears Russian arms supplies to the beleaguered Syrian government are being stepped up.

Over the past 4 years the Russian Alligator-class landing ship Nikolay Filchenkov has made numerous trips out of the Black Sea to the Syrian port of Tartus. However, last month it appeared off the Syrian coast with a cargo of top quality material. There were several armoured personnel carriers, and objects covered in tarpaulin which looked as if they might be rocket launchers. What was in the hold is unclear, but it is sure the ship was packed to the gunnels.

Unconfirmed reports suggest an uptick in Russian military flights into the Latakia region which is a Government stronghold and potential bolt hole if the capital ever falls. Some Israeli media reports suggest Moscow has also just delivered extra MiG fighter jets to Damascus to be used against Islamic State.

All the signs are that Islamic State is about to hit hard, and when it falls back, there will be a diplomatic push to reach a compromise agreement on a Syrian peace deal. The sticking point would be, as always, the role of President Assad.

However, if Islamic State is blunted, even destroyed in Syria, then the Syrian opposition forces will be able to concentrate on fighting on one front, and at that point Mr Assad may start to look for a way out. The Russians are busy preparing the way.

Tim Marshall is the editor of www.thewhatandthewhy.com. An author and broadcaster, he was formerly the Foreign and Diplomatic Editor at Sky News.