Tri-Service
Comment: Is President Putin Guilty Of War Crimes?
"You cannot fix Syria by military means." That's what we've heard from Western diplomats and politicians for five years.
Last year President Putin sent in his bombers - President Obama and Prime Minister Cameron repeated the mantra.. "You cannot do it with bombs."
"Just watch me," said Vladimir.
He was reminding the Obama-Cameron axis that they had done more hand-ringing than a new widow, but had fixed nothing with their tactics - backing useless rebels, and thanks to pressure from an arms contract rich Saudi Arabia, failing to back the two states that could take on Islamic State: Iran and Syria.
Putin went in firstly because he could see that Syria needed nothing more than back-up to beat-up on the rebels. True, or at least those in the Russian corridors of power agree. He knew he was about to bomb places like Aleppo back to the stone age, but so what? That is the Russian way. The Soviet Union and capitalist driven Russia have always done it thus.
Diplomacy? Fine. Go along with it. Even suggest March 1st ceasefire. In the meantime bomb anyone who thinks Russia is going soft.
When there is an agreement to deliver aid, Russia is not tactically stupid. If you move in aid, rebel groups get a breather and move in more weapons. So just keep bombing.
Putin wants the old days, with flotillas of Kashin destroyers and Krivak frigates in command of the Eastern Mediterranean. He would like a submarine loitering anchorage off Hammamet. He wants his bit of the Mediterranean back.
It is not an East Ukraine-like power grab. He is simply saying he's had enough of being the guy they are condescending about, or shot at, when he arrives at G-something or other photocalls. Look at his body language when he's forced to take part in the customary end of conference 'family photo'. He is not urbane. He is Putin, an ex-KGB thug in a suit that does not fit his gym-built frame.
All that is understandable and the West has never grasped it, and couldn't do much about it anyway. The West has no power, other than to set up yet another Geneva-Vienna meeting to which the main players do not go.
But there is another question to be asked: Has Vladimir's bombing operation been so murderous that it is more than a conventional raiding. President Putin is fighting on the invitation of the legitimately elected leader of a country threatened by rebellion.
That may get right up the frocks of a lot of anti-Assadists but most international constitutional lawyers would have to nod it through, albeit reluctantly.
The question mark is the tactic of terror bombing. The Russian Air Force has the hell-fire signature of the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu written all over it. Civilian communities, hospitals including emergency war surgeries are being bombed repeatedly.
One UN report says the Russians are using unguided weapons. They are dropped, they kill and that is the purpose. Death to rebels armed to the teeth by the Western led coalition? Yes. But also women and children. UN figures show that more than 50 recorded dead from these raids were under 18.
So maybe the UN should start labelling statistics like this with War Crimes tags. A waste of time? That could be the case. But so far Putin has justified every raid.
Western Intelligence knows the squadron names and commanders involved in every strike.. maybe, just maybe they do not want the War Crimes indictment.
As for Vladimir Putin? Just maybe. But just watch him. Maybe that is the one accusation that will make him think. On the other hand, he may have got it right, just as General Shoiguy says he has.
Christopher Lee is the BFBS Defence Analyst. As well as appearing on Forces TV he can heard every week on BFBS' Sitrep - the only regular radio programme devoted to discussing the big issues in defence. You can also download the Sitrep podcast by clicking here.
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