Tri-Service

Comment: Putin in Syria - The War Just Got Worse

Russian advisers and equipment are moving into Syria on an increased scale. Intelligence agencies in Washington, London and Paris suggest the evidence of this move is now documented.

The British Prime Minister David Cameron wants the Royal Air Force to join in on bombing raids against President Bashar al-Assad ground forces, airfields and communications centres. American forces have being attacking for some time.

Has any one in London or Washington worked out the consequences of an UK or US guided system knocking out a Russian unit? A "Sorry" may not be enough.

We cannot write off such an incident as miscalculation especially with President Putin in his usual 'Make My Day' mood.

Miscalculations start proper wars. The 4 year old Syrian conflict is a brush fire compared with what could follow the knocking out of Russian hardware and operational forces.

Russian intervention in Syria is not new. Russia, along with Iran for different reasons, has supported President Assad since the war against rebels began. But the latest intervention is different.

Electronic, photographic and human intelligence sources now combine to show that Russian force protection units have been sent to a Syrian airfield.

The purpose of the units is to protect Russian armoured assets and a full air traffic control operation. This is not an in-out Russian operation. Satellite monitoring shows that accommodation blocks including a medical unit have also been airlifted in.

The general operational conclusion is that the Russians have taken command of the airbase to begin further weapon deployments and even strike aircraft.

If you want to really get scared about Russian involvement then listen to what President Putin had to say on 4 September. It is "premature" to talk about Moscow getting involved in direct fighting. That was not Putin saying the reports were rubbish. That was Putin saying watch this space.

More from Forces.tv: The New Cold War Has Begun

Unless Putin is about to change sides, then Prime Minister Cameron will have to answer this simple question when he goes to the Commons seeking permission to bomb Syria: "Does he want permission to bomb ALL pro-Assad forces?"

US Secretary of State John Kerry knows this. That's why he's spending time talking to Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Cameron, who has displayed little tactical or strategic understanding of the use of force and the long term consequence, has a problem.

One of his Brimstone missiles into the wrong armoured personnel carrier in Syria could start the rollout of an even harsher conflict in Northern Europe. According to some of his former military advisers, Cameron's past view is that the military job is to go fight when he tells them to.

Best listen very closely Mr Cameron.

And perhaps the House should listen if the British chairman of the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee Crispin Blunt (who does understand these things) asks his PM for a target list when legislators debate airstrikes in the coming weeks.

Christopher Lee is BFBS' Defence Analyst - He can be heard on Sitrep, the only place on radio where you can hear comprehensive analysis of the week's significant events in Defence.