Tri-Service

Have Obama, Cameron & Co Underestimated Putin Again

Vladimir Putin is a dangerous ex-KGB bodybuilder who plans to knock over as many democracies as possible - and if not rule the world then at least say how it should be ruled.

That is the image put about by Washington and London, along with client states such President Poroshenko's Ukraine; a mix of mocking and alarm bell-ringing. London, Washington and the coffee-morning gathering that runs the Western Alliance, NATO, think they have the true masterplan to peace, prosperity and the eventual downfall of the leader of modern Russia.

The slight problem of it all is that when Mr Putin ordered the taking of Crimea the West posted bare-chested pictures of a horse riding Russian President and told him to get out of Crimea and East Ukraine.

The West's 'Make My Day Punk' plan did not work. Vladimir Putin put his shirt back on and doubled the deployment. The West did nothing about that. Putin had already assessed that they would not. Obama, Cameron et al. did not mention the subject again.

Then President Putin started building up its port facility in Syria and took over the main airbase south of Latakia. Now at the UN General Assembly (an organisation he doesn't need) Mr Putin, in his first visit in a decade, said the deal is that we all back Assad, bin the backing of rebels and then go for Islamic State (IS) in Syria.

The Western punditry, echoed by the British and American leaders, said Vladimir should wind in his military neck, get out of Syria and forget any deals with Assad. Now there is an idea that Putin is right but no one can say so.

Today the plan is looking something like this:

The West has long realised that it should never have backed the Syrian Free Army etc but cannot say so.
The West should never have rushed in to the anti-Assad camp without thinking through the strategic end game. Putin did think it through.
Putin's Russia has long been an ally of Assad and knows from decades of fighting rebel forces, especially in Chechnya, that backing Assad's enemies was a mug's game.

Now we have squeaky briefings in Whitehall and here at the United Nations that Assad can stay for a while but agree to go eventually and that zapping IS should be the main effort.

The French have started. The Australians are in on it. The British have done so and will do more and the Americans are leading the way. No one of course will put boots on the ground. No one that is other than the Russians. Russia is now running the show and the West is playing a dangerous catch-up.

There are three reasons for this change of tune and tactic by the Western coalition:

Bad Intelligence four years back made them back the wrong horse and they are only just realising that.
Secondly (and reluctantly) they are privately saying that Putin's game could be the surest bet.
Thirdly (and most significantly) there is every evidence that IS is beatable thanks to a combination of better Intelligence gathering, drone reconnaissance and attack, and the fortitude and bravery of Kurdish Peshmerga fighters.

What does this tell us today at the UN?

Firstly, Western Intelligence analysis four years back of what was going on in Syrian and the likely outcome was a failure.

Secondly, Putin may not have been right but his crude opportunism was based on what was possible and now he is looking right, and although they will not say so Western governments know this.

Thirdly, Syria is not a single example of Western failure to get Intelligence analysis right. Western assessment of what was happening in Libya, Egypt, Iraq, Yemen and Syria? All wrong.

When the critics of what goes down here at the UN blame the United Nations then they should think again. It is not the UN that is consistently wrong. The misjudgements are to be laid at the doors of foreign policy analysts who are either failures or who cannot overcome the preconceptions of political leaders too busy to think through the jumble of reality and possibility.

The shorthand is that Western leadership, the French and Germans being honourable exceptions, for all their assets are not up to the task of the management - never mind the crisis management - of today's world.

Vladimir Putin may be loaded with all the terrible characteristics our leaderships say he is but so far he has out thought them by sticking with the basics of Intelligence and Opportunity Assessment.

It is easy to assess capability, the hard job is then assessing the intentions of an enemy and opportunities to exploit a situation. So far at least, President Putin is ahead of the game.

Christopher Lee is a Defence Analyst for BFBS. When not at the United Nations General Assembly in New York he can be heard on Sitrep, the only weekly radio programme devoted to discussing the big issues in Defence.