Future of Russia's Syrian air and naval bases in doubt with fall of Assad regime
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria has put the future of Russia's air and naval bases there in doubt.
Moscow supported Syria's fight against rebel groups, including Islamic State, and had two bases on the Mediterranean coast.
BFBS Forces News has taken a closer look at what might happen to them, and what this might mean for Vladimir Putin's global reputation if Russia is forced out.
A French journalist captured recent footage of a Russian military convoy passing rebel fighters in western Syria.
However, the question is how much longer will Russian forces be there and what happens to Russia's two bases now Bashar Al Assad's regime has fallen?
"The collapse of the regime was very quick, very sudden, and it didn't seem like any of the Iranian units or Russian units were really facing all that much on the ground, they just kind of evaporated," Middle East expert Phillip Smyth told BFBS Forces News.
He added: "Everything just kind of fell into place."
However, Mr Smyth highlighted that the Russians are "still there".
"They didn't just yank everybody out and go. So there clearly were some background negotiations there and I think it remains to be seen how the West and other governments in the region will handle what will pretty much become an HTS-dominated [Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham] government."
The Kremlin has two key military bases on Syria's Mediterranean coast. The Russians took over Khmeimim Airbase near Latakia in 2015.
Two dozen Su-24 and Su-25 jets are stationed there along with four Su-27 Flankers and 20 combat helicopters.
Further south, the Kremlin also has a naval base at Tartus, built by the Soviets.
For Moscow, this is a particularly critical site as it is Russia's only overseas naval base and provides direct access to the Mediterranean.
As well as conducting exercises from Tartus, the Russians have also stationed warships and nuclear submarines there.
What is happening to those bases now, according to satellite imagery, shows Russia has removed all its ships and submarines from the port at Tartus.
These are said to be in a holding pattern eight kilometres offshore.
Ukrainian intelligence says Moscow has also pulled some of its aircraft out of Latakia – damaging what's left of Russia's international prestige.
Losing these bases would also make it far more difficult for Russia to continue its operations in Africa.
"It's an absolutely massive blow," said Mr Smyth.
The Middle East expert says for the Russians, in particular, this could be seen as the crown jewel being removed when it comes to projections of their ideologies of their presence.
"For the Russians, it was having those bases... it helped retain that notion they were more than a half-baked, not even a major, power."
Mr Smyth thinks this "slap in the face" is the latest incident that adds to the Russians' compendium of issues as their war with Ukraine continues, which he said had become an "attrition-based slog".
The Kremlin says its bases in Syria are operating normally as it waits to see who takes control in Damascus.
Moscow's tone toward HTS – the main rebel group – has become softer in recent days, with some believing it will try to cut a deal.
Russia is also Syria's main trading partner, but for the rebels it could still prove too unpalatable to ally with Assad's main military backer and the country that has given him asylum.
Now the world questions what happens if Russia does leave and where President Putin is going to focus his attention next.
"Even in the middle of the Ukraine war, they were trying to project in West Africa," said Mr Smyth.
"It would not surprise me if they try to spread a little bit more disorder for their benefit in Africa."
For now, everything is uncertain as regional players like Russia and Iran flex their foreign policy to reflect the collapse of the Assad regime.
Russia could feasibly try to move forces to Libya, Mali or Sudan, but none have the same strategic value as Syria for both Russia's pride and global power.
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