Analysis: Ukraine's reserve armoured brigades could help secure decisive breakthrough

Kyiv is believed to have a number of armoured brigades in reserve as it tries to make a decisive breakthrough, writes Forces News' Ukraine correspondent Simon Newton.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive began in early June, and after two months of brutal fighting, everyone is waiting to see what Kyiv will do next.

When will act two of this counter-offensive begin and when will Ukraine unleash the bulk of its fighting forces against the Russians?

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Currently, the Ukrainians are attacking on three axes. In northern Donetsk, they are still battling Russian troops around the city of Bakhmut.

With Wagner mercenaries gone, the town is now being defended by elite VDV paratroopers. 

By fixing them in place, the Ukrainians are stopping them from being used to reinforce other parts of the frontline. 

On the southern front, around Zaporizhzhia, the Ukrainians have reportedly reached the village of Robotyne, about 15km south of Orikhiv. 

Leading the Ukrainian counter-offensive here is the 47th Mechanised Brigade, equipped with Leopard tanks and US Bradley fighting vehicles, and many of its soldiers were trained by the British Army. 

Fighting is also taking place around Velyka Novosilka, north of the port city of Mariupol. Here, the Ukrainians have moved forward around 8km. 

The Ukrainians are still reaching Russia's primary lines of defence – some of which are 15km deep. The approaches are laced with mines and within easy range of Russian artillery. 

At the start of the counter-offensive, Moscow's forces managed to take out a number of Ukrainian tanks and Bradleys – reports say all the damaged Leopards were sent to Poland for repair and are now back in service. 

The Ukrainians were quick to change tactics, holding back some of its armour and, instead, deploying smaller, platoon-sized groups of dismounted infantry.

Ukraine's also continuing to hit Russian supply lines, using UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles to target logistics hubs.

These shaping operations are also designed to fix Russian forces in place and wear them down.

Turning point?

Ukraine formed 12 brigades, each up to 5,000 soldiers strong to conduct the counter-offensive.

It is believed Kyiv put several of its best-equipped brigades into the fight but kept half in reserve. 

The question now is when will they deploy them?

On the map, Ukraine's gains may look tiny, but what they do not show is the effect this attrition is having on the Russian army's morale and equipment.

A collapse of Russian forces in just one part of this 1,000km frontline could yet prove a turning point.