We must appear strong to enemies and be honest with friends to deter a crisis, says expert
A security crisis is plausible next year, but the UK's ability to deal with it hinges on the strength of our deterrence, an expert has told BFBS' Sitrep podcast.
Dr Jack Watling, a senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), spoke to the podcast's hosts, Professor Michael Clarke and Kate Gerbeau, about the UK's preparedness for warfare and how Russia's war with Ukraine could impact London's readiness.
His comments follow former defence secretary Lord Robertson's criticisms of the government, saying that the UK was "underprepared, underinsured and under attack" as a result of the "ever-expanding welfare budget", which has sucked up investment that is required for defence spending.
We could face a security crisis next year
"I mean, if we end up with a ceasefire in Ukraine next year, let's say, and the Coalition of the Willing enacts what it has said it will do, which [is] to try and deter subsequent Russian aggression," Dr Watling said.
"And the Russians look at the force and the countries that form the Coalition of the Willing and believe it is hollow or will not stand and fight and challenge their entry into Ukraine.
"Then, next year is a plausible point at which we could face [a] security crisis."
The Coalition of the Willing, led by the UK and France, has suggested that the Multinational Force for Ukraine, as the government refers to it, could be deployed to Ukraine to reinforce long-term security guarantees in the event of a ceasefire.
Some £200m of funding has been given to the Armed Forces to help them prepare to deploy as a peacekeeping force in Ukraine, should a deal be agreed between Kyiv and Moscow.
Although the money has been pledged through the core defence budget, the Financial Times reported that the Treasury has allegedly broken its deal with the Ministry of Defence to fund provisional UK personnel in Kyiv from the central budget.
The MOD will be left footing the initial £200m bill itself, with the cost of the peacekeeping estimated to hit between £600m and £800m, according to reports.
Rhetoric doesn't match action
Lord Robertson, who co-authored the Strategic Defence Review with General Sir Richard Barrons and Fiona Hill, said that Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer was "not willing to make the necessary investment" and accused "non-military experts in the Treasury" of "vandalism".
"Lip service is paid to the risks, the threats, the bright red signals of danger – but even a promised national conversation about defence can't be started," he said.
In response to the former Nato Secretary General's comments, Sir Keir dismissed the claims. "My responsibility is to keep the British people safe and that is duty I take seriously. That is why I don't agree with his comments," the Prime Minister said.
Speaking on the gulf between the government's words on its preparedness for conflict and its real-world actions, Dr Watling said: "Deterrence shapes their calculus, and their understanding of our seriousness shapes their calculus.
"The risk is that we are very aggressive in our rhetoric, saying that we're going to be war-ready and we're going to confront the Russian aggression and so on, but that we do not take the necessary steps to show that we mean it.
"And under those circumstances, the risk, they look at us, and they say, well, your intent is very hostile, but you're not actually going to be able to execute it for a number of years.
"Therefore, we have a window of opportunity. It's better to go sooner rather than later. And you end up compelling a crisis rather than deterring it."
Given that the government needs to show it can deter any adversary, the statements do not match the current situation in the services, with the British Army now numbering around 73,790 personnel, down from over 100,000 serving soldiers more than a decade ago.
"The Army has shrunk, and we have tripled our commitment of ground forces to Nato by saying we would generate a corps, which would require more ground troops than is the deployable capacity for the entire British Army," Dr Watling explained.
"So, there is a growing gap between our commitments to our allies and what we can actually do. We do face a choice there, which is we could be more honest with our allies about what's achievable. Or we have to resource what we've said we'll do. But you have to choose."
You can listen to BFBS' Sitrep wherever you get your podcasts, or on BFBS Forces News YouTube channel.
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