Ukraine running out of time to use US Abrams tanks before winter, retired general says
US-supplied M1A1 Abrams tanks are unlikely to play a key role in Ukraine in the "fighting season" before the winter sets in, a retired British Army general has said.
Four months into Ukraine's counter-offensive, the outcome is still uncertain, with its forces advancing slower than they and their Western backers hoped.
But retired British Army Major General Chip Chapman, who fought in the Falklands War and went on to command 2 Para and 19 Brigade during his 33-year career, said this was not surprising, given the obstacles they are facing.
"There is no planning yardstick in any staff officer's handbook which can guide you about how you do this," he told Forces News.
Maj Gen Chapman explained: "They've reached the third line of the first line of defences, that is why it is a breach and not a breakout.
"Now, we like planning yardsticks in the Army, but we've never really, since the Second World War, had a planning yardstick when you've had tens of kilometres of defensive positions strewn with anti-tank minefields, dragons' teeth, and a trench system this large."
Role of the M1 Abrams
While the first of the American-made M1A1 Abrams tanks have been delivered to Ukraine, Maj Gen Chapman said it was unlikely they would play a key role in the coming months as more wintry ground conditions will make it harder for tanks to get about.
"Every tactical operation is really a relationship between the ground, the enemy and time and space," he said.
"Ukraine are making gains in terms of the ground and the enemy, but it's whether they're going to run out of time and space in what might be called the 'fighting season' to use something which has a particularly vast platform weight on the ground."
He added: "Both [President] Zelensky and Tarnavskyi, the commander of Ukraine's military fighting in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, have both said fighting won't stop in the winter season.
"If it were to stop, then it would give the Russians the opportunity not only to dig in again at a place of their choosing but also mean that they could restock and redeploy."
Along with the Abrams tanks, the US is also sending ATACMS long-range precision-guided missiles to Ukraine.
Maj Gen Chapman said Ukraine could become an eroding stalemate, a phrase once used to describe the war in Afghanistan.
But he also pointed out that with the right support, Kyiv could keep up the momentum through the winter and perhaps, come the spring, turn that stalemate into a landslide.
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