Sons and daughters must be ready to fight amid growing threat from Russia, CDS warns
The UK's sons and daughters need to be prepared to fight as the threat from Russia grows, the head of the Armed Forces has warned.
Air Chief Marshal Sir Rich Knighton said he had no desire to shock – but then laid out a sobering case for why he is urging more people to be ready to take up arms in order to protect the UK.
Giving his first lecture at the Royal United Services Institute since becoming Chief of the Defence Staff, ACM Sir Rich said the objective must be to avoid war, but warned "the price of maintaining peace is rising".
What sacrifice means
He said: "Sons and daughters, colleagues, veterans will all have a part to play. To build. To serve. And if necessary, to fight. And more families will know what sacrifice for our nation means."
ACM Sir Rich endorsed the views of his "good friend" General Fabien Mandon, referencing a recent address in which his French counterpart warned France would be at risk if it lacked the resolve to accept casualties or economic sacrifice.
He also made reference to the world's largest crowd-sourced forecasting site, Metaculus, which suggests there is a 16% probability Russia and any Nato member state will be in direct conflict before 2027.
ACM Sir Rich used football as an analogy, saying: "To put this in context, over the weekend the bookies were saying that there is a 4% chance of Liverpool winning the Premier League.
"So even saying the chances are remote does not mean the chances are zero. My point is that none of us can say with any certainty what the absolute risk might be."
Russia investing in its armed forces
As a result of increased defence spending and its experiences in Ukraine, he said Russia now had a "massive, increasingly technically sophisticated and now highly combat-experienced military".
ACM Sir Rich added: "Over the past 20 years, Russia has delivered significant defence reform and investment into what were weak and hollowed-out armed forces.
"The Russian armed forces are now more than 1.1 million strong, consuming more than 7% of GDP and around 40% of government spending, which is a sum that has more than doubled over the past decade."
Russia, he warned, was developing new and destabilising weapons systems such as nuclear-armed torpedoes and nuclear-powered cruise missiles, putting nuclear weapons in space.
Call for whole of society to be involved
Setting out the "whole of society" effort needed to respond to the increasingly dangerous situation in Europe, the Chief of the Defence Staff explained: "First, it means more people being ready to fight for their country."
ACM Sir Rich said that meant not just regular forces, but an increase in the reserves and cadets too. And he said the "painfully slow" pace of private investment in the defence industry also needed to accelerate.
"Building this industrial capacity also means we need more people who leave schools and universities to join that industry," he said.
"So we need defence and political leaders to explain the importance of the industry to the nation, and we need schools and parents to encourage children and young adults to take up careers in the industry."
The Government announced earlier this year that UK defence and security spending would rise to 5% of GDP by 2035 at the latest.
ACM Sir Rich said: "Unless we can explain the risks, we can't expect decision-makers in government or society more broadly to pay that price."
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