Russia likely to convict more than 5,000 troops for refusing to fight in Ukraine, MOD says

Russia could be on track to convicting 5,200 troops a year for refusing to fight in Ukraine, according to the Ministry of Defence (MOD).

In its latest defence update on X, formerly Twitter, the MOD quoted Mediazona, a Russian news outlet focusing on anti-Putin opposition, as saying Russia was convicting close to 100 soldiers a week for refusing to fight.

"If this trend continues, there will be approximately 5,200 convictions a year for refusing to fight," the post said.

• Ukraine could make 'dramatic' advances after breaching Russian defences – expert
• Russia won't hit military recruitment targets despite boosting forces' wages, MOD says
• 'Likely' Russia cancelled major military exercise due to lack of troops, equipment and fear of domestic criticism, MOD says

The MOD continued: "On 25 August 2023, two Russian soldiers were sentenced to serve at least two years in a penal colony by a military court for refusing to obey orders to return to the front in Ukraine. 

"The high rate of convictions demonstrates the poor state of morale in the Russian army and the reluctance of some elements to fight.

"Refusal to fight likely reflects the lack of training, motivation and high stress situations Russian forces face along the entire Ukrainian frontline."

The MOD said Russia likely "mitigates their loss by committing a mass of poorly trained soldiers to the frontline".

"Since Russia's September 2022 partial mobilisation, Russia has adapted its approach to warfare by utilising sheer mass for offensive and defensive operations," the post said.

The MOD had earlier pointed to poor morale within Russian forces destined for Ukraine. Despite the fact that Russia was continuing to increase the wages of those joining its armed forces in Ukraine, the MOD said Moscow would still struggle to meet its recruitment targets.

And a former US naval intelligence officer told Forces News that Ukrainian forces could make "rapid and dramatic" gains in their counter-offensive if they manage to breach Russian defences.

The Ukrainian military is continuing to attack on a number of fronts and Steven Horrell, who is studying the conflict for the Washington-based think-tank Center for European Policy Analysis, said if Kyiv forces can break through Russian defences then Ukraine's advance could "very quickly accelerate".  

"Ukraine could roll up behind them [Russian troops] in multiple directions if you get one of those breakthroughs," he said.