Ukraine could make 'dramatic' advances after breaching Russian defences – expert
Ukrainian forces could make "rapid and dramatic" gains in their counter-offensive if they manage to breach Russian defences, a former US naval intelligence officer says.
The Ukrainian military is continuing to attack on a number of fronts and Steven Horrell, who is studying the conflict for the Washington-based think-tank Center for European Policy Analysis, says if Kyiv forces can bring through Russian defences then Ukraine's advance could "very quickly accelerate".
Mr Horrell told Forces News: "Ukraine could roll up behind them [Russian troops] in multiple directions if you get one of those breakthroughs.
"Because what they [Russia] don't have is a layered defence in depth behind those very strong static defensive lines. If a breakthrough is achieved, it could be rapid and dramatic after that."
Mr Horrell said if Ukraine can indeed make a breakthrough, it has at least eight heavy brigades in reserve ready to go and exploit any weaknesses.
"That's 250 armoured vehicles concentrated on a single one of those axes of attack at once. We'll know when it comes," the expert said.
Russia's main ground line of communication – known as a GLOC – is a road and rail route that runs from Rostov in southern Russia to Crimea.
It's used to send vast amounts of food, ammunition and troops to southern Ukraine and if Ukraine is to get within artillery range and cut the supply line, Moscow's problems would grow even deeper.
Ukrainian forces continue to advance in several areas but the gains are small.
Mr Horrell said Nato must continue to support Ukraine until it achieves victory and said he'd like to see the Biden administration supply more long-range precision strike capability, including Atacms Army Tactical Missile System missiles which have a range of nearly 200 miles.
"Ukraine's victory is still, to a certain degree or another, dependent on continued Western military assistance – some of that is just the numbers and volumes... some of that is in much-needed capabilities, like longer-range precision strike, like Atacms instead of Himars."
Mr Horrell added if Ukraine can hit Russia's logistics and command and control ability then breakthroughs on the frontlines are "much more possible".
In recent days, Moscow's troops partially withdrew from Urozhaine, a settlement in the south of Ukraine, with video surfacing of Russian conscripts complaining they've been sent into battle without proper training, equipment or artillery support.
At the same time, the Kremlin is reportedly redeploying elite paratroopers from Bakhmut down to the south.
All this, Ukraine hopes, will weaken Russia's ability to hold the line as Kyiv's armoured brigades wait for a breakthrough.
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