Ukraine braced for summer offensive as Russia prepares hardware for hard fighting
Ukraine is bracing itself for a Russian summer offensive, according to a new report.
It said Moscow is racing to maximise its gains before its stockpiles of Soviet-era weaponry run out in the autumn.
But it may well have already started.
Russia is intensifying its offensive operations in Ukraine, pressing harder on the battlefield to gain leverage at the negotiating table.
A new report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) said that despite months of stalled progress, Russia is gearing up again.
After a few performative ceasefires around Easter and Victory Day, Moscow is about to up the tempo of its attacks.
While Ukraine has suffered from a lack of troops, Russian recruitment is high.
Command reshuffles and stockpiled equipment provide clues that a new push is coming, especially around Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk in Donbas.
But this won't be a blitzkrieg.
The report said Russia lacks the quality of forces needed to launch a fast combined arms manoeuvre.
Instead, expect a grinding escalation - more attacks, broader fronts, deeper strikes.
Ukraine has been very effective in using drones to crush Russian advances, blinding their artillery and air attacks.
Ukrainian fibre optic drones are also flying ever deeper behind Russian lines.
A FPV drone reportedly flew 42 kilometres to capture footage of Russian armour hidden in a hangar.
But Moscow's forces are adapting, targeting Ukrainian drone pilots and the small radar systems they use to intercept Russian reconnaissance drones.
Russian forces are also now targeting Ukraine's precious HIMARS rocket launchers.
Washington provided Kyiv with 40 of them at the start of the war.
With a 50-mile range, Ukraine has used them with devastating effect to hit Russian logistics hubs, command centres and ammunition depots.
But Russian forces are hunting them down.
An elite Russian drone unit called Rubicon chased and eventually destroyed a HIMARS launcher near Chasiv Yar, just six miles from the frontline.
At the same time, the Kremlin is continuing its deep strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, launching record numbers of drones and missiles to send a signal that nowhere is safe.
Not just to Ukrainians, but also to any European nation thinking about putting boots on the ground.
Amid all this, there are geopolitical shifts underway as well. President Trump has signalled that he might pull back from Ukraine diplomacy.
The RUSI report said Russia sees that as a huge opportunity. Moscow believes any disengagement by the US will fracture European support and test the unity of Nato.
With American backing now uncertain, Europe must step up, RUSI urged.
As long as Washington allows re-exports of US-made weaponry, Europe can meet Ukraine’s key needs, especially for air defence and rocket systems.
The report also highlighted the vulnerabilities of Russia's economy.
Sanctions, oil price drops and equipment losses are mounting.
By the autumn, stockpiles of Soviet-era equipment, from tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to artillery pieces, will begin to run out, the report revealed.
From then on, Russia will have to replace any losses with whatever it can produce from scratch.
If Ukraine holds the line - and the West tightens economic pressure - Russia may finally be forced to negotiate seriously.
The alternative? A much darker outcome, said the RUSI paper.
If Russia takes more ground this summer and then attacks Kharkiv in the autumn, it may try to force a peace on its terms.
And there are already reports that Moscow is massing 50,000 troops across the border from Ukraine's second city, threatening to do just that.
For Kyiv, the coming months are critical.
Ukraine and its allies must act, said the RUSI report, on the battlefield, in diplomacy and economically, to strip the Kremlin of its illusions of victory.
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