Russian defensive extension along Ukrainian border shows Moscow's 'false belief' of invasion

Russia's extension of defensive positions along its border with Ukraine highlights the false belief of decision makers in Moscow that there is the threat of an invasion by Ukraine's military, according to the Ministry of Defence (MOD).

In an update on Twitter, the MOD said Russia recently started extending defensive positions "deep inside its Belgorod region".

According to the MOD, the governor of Belgorod also announced he was "establishing local 'self-defence units".

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"Trench digging has been reported in Belgorod since at least April 2022, but the new constructions are probably more elaborate systems, designed to rebuff mechanised assault," the MOD said.

"There is a realistic possibility that the Russian authorities are promoting defensive preparations within internationally recognised Russian territory to burnish patriotic feeling.

"However, it probably illustrates some Russia decision-makers' genuine (but false) belief that there is a credible threat of invasion by Ukrainian forces."

The MOD added that the lack of strategic assessment in central Russian government is one of its critical weaknesses - "highlighted by Russia's original decision to invade Ukraine".

"Impartial official analysis is almost certainly frequently undermined by a tendency toward group-think and politically expedient conclusions," the MOD said.

It comes after the MOD said attacks on Russian air bases 600km from Ukrainian-controlled territory is likely to be considered as "some of the most strategically significant failures of force protection" since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

In a recent update on Twitter, the Ministry of Defence (MOD) said multiple open sources reported explosions at the Engels Airbase and at Dyagilyaevo airfield near Ryazan.

"Two Tu-95 BEAR heavy bombers were reportedly damaged at Engels and three people were killed when a fuel tank exploded at Dyagilyaevo," the MOD said.

The update said Engels is the main operating base of Russia's Long Range Aviation within the west of the country and houses more than 30 heavy bombers.

"These aircraft contribute to Russia's nuclear deterrent and have also frequently been used to launch conventional cruise missiles at Ukraine," the MOD said.