Tri-Service

Comment: Try Walking In Vladimir Putin's Shoes

Today try and see one thing from Vladimir Putin's point of view, or at least walk a few steps wearing his shoes. The tiny Balkan state of Montenegro does not much like Russia. The diplomatic signs from a meeting of NATO ambassadors in Montenegro's capital Podgorica suggest that by the end of this year the country will be a member of the Western Alliance.

Seems a straight forward bit of European business. If you are a small state (population 650,000) best keep your head down or join something that will look after you in the event of international trouble.

Moreover Montenegro is already in the EU. So it would seem an easy ride into the military club. It would also tell Russia that the good guys are still siding with the West, not Moscow. It would be the first expansion of NATO since Albania and Croatia joined in 2009.

So job all but done. Almost.

Not everyone in Montenegro wants to join. For example, ethnic Serbs are like many in Serbia and simply do not want to be in NATO and have always had ideological links with the Russian Federation.

But never mind, the Americans say that if Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic cleans up the problems of crime and corruption, rife across the state's society, then he'll get US approval at the December meeting of the Alliance. Given the tensions in the Ukraine and the intervention in Syria, then Putin will get the message that NATO is getting stronger, in spite of his threats to many former client states of Moscow.

Here it is worthwhile looking at the deal from the Kremlin's viewpoint. Think of yourself as Putin.

More from Forces.tv - Comment: The New Cold War Has Begun

When Communism collapsed in the 1990s the West promised that it would not expand into the former Near Abroad as the USSR called its border states. The Warsaw Pact would disappear but the US in particular said Moscow had no fear that its cordon countries would be taken over. They would become neutral.

What happened? Putin in his formative years, and then in power, saw former Soviet states joining the EU and then NATO, before in-turn becoming major exercise territory for NATO forces. American sponsored NATO forces opened bases in East European states. NATO simply moved the old Cold War front line right onto the Russia border.

Imagine if that had been the other way? Imagine being the so-called West and Russia marching its troops even further westwards than before. Imagine the overrun states joining what was then the Warsaw Pact. Would we be twitchy?

Vladimir Putin sees Montenegro's application to join NATO as yet another expansion of the West and therefore in his terms, a threat. Maybe no big deal. But think how the Russian President sees it and then perhaps understand a little more how Mr Putin ticks.

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Christopher Lee is the BFBS Defence Analyst. As well as appearing on Forces TV he can heard every week on BFBS' Sitrep - the only regular radio programme devoted to discussing the big issues in defence. You can also download the Sitrep podcat by clicking here.