Shadow of war is on Europe's door warns Carns - who reckons UK is ready to fight
Are we prepared for war? That was a question put to Armed Forces Minister Al Carns - who warned we could see conflict on our doorstep in the next three to five years.
He said: "There's a requirement for greater mental and physical resilience, but I actually believe this nation's absolutely great and if it was called to respond I have no doubt that the nation would do so."
Speaking on a panel at Chatham House during the Security and Defence Conference, the former colonel in the Royal Marines reiterated his point that "the shadow of war is on Europe's door once more".
It's already here
"The reality is it’s already here. We've got 10,000 DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea/North Korean] troops fighting and dying on the edge of Europe," he told journalists.
"If you look across Europe, the planning timeline is 29-30. People want to be ready for that sort of space. My view would be three to five years geographical constrained crisis."
The Ukraine-Russia war has changed the way Europe is looking at conflict, and with the heightened use of drones and technology, many lessons are being learnt from the battlefield.
The Armed Forces Minister said those lessons were being applied to a conflict we could face - but warned we could not keep up with the technology.
"I genuinely believe we've seen a complete change in the character of conflict," he said.
"Whoever integrates uncrewed systems into the way we fight, or the way we fight into uncrewed systems - how the Ukrainians are fighting - will be best prepared for the next conflict, which will not look like the conflict that’s taking place in Ukraine.
"If we look at Ukraine, one or two drones equates to about 20 rounds of artillery, lethality and accuracy.
"By the time you buy that drone in eight weeks it's already out of date because it is moving so fast."
Mr Carns, who maintains the rank of colonel in his service in the Royal Marines Reserve, is looking to adopt a "slow is smooth and smooth is fast" approach when it comes to buying uncrewed systems for the Armed Forces.
He said we need the right product at the right time to avoid making the same mistakes Ukraine made at the beginning of the drone revolution.
On the EU’s Security Action for Europe programme (SAFE), Mr Carns warned that if the UK was not allowed into the the programme it would be “self-defeating”.
The SAFE programme is part of an EU-wide effort to provide long-term loans to EU countries for ammunition, artillery and military drones.
"The UK is absolutely essential to European security - 110% it is pivotal," he insisted.
"It’s the cornerstone of European security given its geographical position as an island nation. So to not allow it into a European Defence fund is actually self-defeating if we're talking about a threat potentially materialising in four to five years."
Despite not being able to make a decision on the programme last year, Mr Carns predicts there will be more work on it.
"You're going to see far greater collaboration moving forward because I think that is now really resonating," he concluded.
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