Lada Niva, Renault Kangoo or MRAP armoured vehicle? Find out what works best in Ukraine

If you were fighting in Ukraine, would you rather travel around in a French delivery van or an MRAP armoured vehicle?

It sounds like a no-brainer, but this conflict, and in particular the drone saturation we're seeing, has created a very interesting paradox.

Does the trade-off between protection and situational awareness mean that in some circumstances you're better off in the van?

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Protection v visibility

Elizabeth Bullock, an expert on the way Russia wages war, spent three years on the ground in frontline areas of Ukraine.

She's spoken to Ukrainian soldiers about this question, and has written about it online.

"We have, of course, a legacy of having more armour. More armour is better. And in Ukraine, that is not always... the case. So if you are in a slow, heavy vehicle, that is not what you want.

"I was speaking to a friend of mine who's in the Ukrainian army, and he was talking about how he had seen that FPV drones had simply followed MRAP [mine-resistant ambush protected] MaxxPros and waited until the back doors opened and then flown in and killed all the soldiers inside.

"If you are in a vehicle that is very obviously a high-value military asset, it is going to be a high-value target, so you are immediately in a more dangerous position than if you are in a nondescript civilian car or a van. Best scenario is a Lada.

"There are a lot of Ladas in Ukraine, and they are everywhere, and they're also very agile. But the other piece is also the experience. So if you are inside [an MRAP], he was telling me, you're effectively in a black box.

"So if you imagine that you're in that environment where you know there are drones outside, that you are being hunted, and you are trapped in a black box, it's going to feel claustrophobic and deeply unpleasant.

"The line he said to me was 'I would rather have a Renault Kangoo than an MRAP Max Pro, because there are windows'. You can see out the windows. And you can open those windows so you can hear."

Riding shotgun

The counter argument to this is that modern armoured vehicles are bristling with sensors that can detect incoming threats. There are also electronic warfare systems that you won't necessarily have on a Renault Kangoo.

But if you're being hunted down by FPVs, let's say fibre-optic ones that can't be jammed, you probably want to try to take them down. And the best weapon to do that with can be as simple as a shotgun.

Now of course a light commercial vehicle provides minimal protection from shrapnel, from landmines or incoming rounds. But Ukraine has shown that when it comes to countering drones, the visibility they provide is something soldiers value.

So is there an argument for civilian companies to be ready, if need be, to pivot quickly to producing military versions of their vehicles at scale?

VW is apparently looking at doing that. And Renault has gone even further and announced plans to start making long-range drones.

Of course you're not going to assault a Russian position from a Renault Kangoo.

But the war in Ukraine has generated an interesting debate about survivability and what type of vehicle is optimal in this sort of drone-dominated conflict.