COMMENT: 'Can Anyone Fix Syria?'

By Christopher Lee, Forces Radio (BFBS) Defence Analyst.

The White House is confused about Syria.

It does not know what it is supposed to think, which is a difficult position for President Trump having ordered the cruise missile strike.

It gives every indication that the President of the United States knows nothing about the 'Syria Situation' and cannot measure up to being a real President - one at whom the buck stops.

He can be briefed. But he does not understand power beyond running Trump Property Development.

Here then is a simple briefing for the man who has everything but displays nothing.

The Trump Administration (and it seems the British Foreign Office also) believes that the way to fix Syria is to hammer the Russians and then bring them on board.

Wrong.  

The people that need to be sorted are first the Iranians, then the Saudis.

It is true that the Russians appear to be the muscle in President Assad’s punch against the rebels.

But the real and long term allies are not the Russians... they could change sides any day.

The real war chums are the Iranians.

The Iranians are Shias and Assad, through his Alawite family, is Shia.

Iran is the proxy warfighter of the Middle East and Iran sees the battle with the rebels as a battle with Sunnis - therefore, this is a proxy war between Saudi Arabia (Sunni ruled) and Iran.

So how do you fix it?

America has to deal with Iran by saying Assad can stay but must run elections with Iran providing security.  

A deal has to be done with Russians to maintain its port, the only constant access it has in Med.

That is not difficult. Apart from anything else militarily, satellites can have a permanent watch on the Russians alongside and produce on the hour Intelligence of capabilities.

Also, by leaving the Russians in Syria (they were there anyway) America would tacitly accept that the theatre map of today is the one to work.

A treaty would be produced involving the Gulf Council, Syria, Iran, Russia and the US, and it would be reviewed in 2 years.

It all sounds simple but of course, it is not.

It could take another couple of years to fix and in the meantime, the real hope of a solution - a palace revolution in Assad’s own house - has to be hoped for.

It is the only chance of a long lasting peace.

There is one simple fact that fed to Mr Trump may give a thought to play with: he believes the sarin attack was bad news.

Yes. But every day there is worse. Conventional weapons kill more and maim more than a chemical attack.

Last month the Syrian airforce dropped 495 barrel bombs and killed more Syrians doing so.

Last year the Syrian airforce delivered 12,958 barrel bombs.

Mr President, ask why the US (and the rest of us) did nothing.

Christopher Lee is the Forces Radio (BFBS) Defence Analyst. He can be heard every week on the only radio programme devoted to discussing matters of defence and security, Sitrep. To listen head here. To download, click here.