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Cyber attacks, spies and undersea cables: What exactly is the grey zone?

What is the grey zone?

An expert has addressed an area of defence involving acts of aggression that fall short of military conflict.

BFBS Forces News has explored the 'grey zone', which lies between war and peace and hosts a range of threats.

The grey zone is a country's efforts to destabilise another without combat, utilising cyber attacks, spies and the sabotage of critical infrastructure such as undersea cables. 

Cyber attacks 

Cyber threat rising, with China being the most capable

Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said some states can "buy up" cutting-edge companies in another country to remove certain capabilities.

"It can also be things like interference in academia – either you take advantage of that research in an unfair way or you send your own researchers to essentially help themselves to universities' research, whether or not you have funded them," Ms Braw added.

She said such a move "doesn't look anything like aggression" but "weakens our societies" while offering an unfair advantage to competitors.

While conventional attacks often result in a "big price to pay", attacks from the 'grey zone' often leave the victim with "no idea how to respond, because it's not even clear what's taking place is geo-political aggression", she explained. 

Given that modern warfare now relies on digital systems, including sensors, satellites and data links, if the systems are disrupted by a cyber attack, it affects decision-making, slows responses and changes outcomes. 

"It runs on digital. And if it's digital, it's cyber. And if it's cyber, it can be hacked. That's the essential proposition here," Dr Stevens, the director of King's College Cyber Security Research Group, said.

In response to the growing cyber threat, the UK has created the Cyber and Specialist Operations Command (CSOC). 

In addition to CSOC, the Ministry of Defence has an offensive cyber capability within the National Cyber Force, which remains largely secret. 

Spies 

Are there people spying for Russia on your street? Maybe

One aspect of the grey zone involves adversaries recruiting spies to gather intelligence, harass targets, or sabotage infrastructure.

For some states, such as Russia, recruiting the nation's general public is seen as a cheap way to achieve its aims, given that its actions are deniable and designed to sit below the threshold of open conflict. 

Incentives for the general public to spy for an enemy state can include money, a grievance against British society, or the adrenaline rush of committing the act. 

Andrei Soldatov, a Russian investigative journalist, has said that Europe needs to take the threat of spying "very seriously" following several incidents, such as the attempted leaking of details about then-defence secretary Grant Shapps by Howard Phillips to people he believed were Russian agents. 

Moscow is also taking a particular interest in spying on the UK, given the UK government's strong support for Ukraine. 

Undersea cables 

Invisible frontline: the underwater web

Undersea cables, despite being buried far underneath us and being rather unremarkable, are the backbone that is carrying 21st-century Britain as, without them, we would not be able to email each other, WhatsApp one another and transfer money. 

These cables are the new frontline for Nato because if a hostile country disabled the connection, they could effectively cut off the country. 

Adversaries could deliberately try to sabotage these cables by attacking multiple sections. 

To address the threat to these cables, the Government has unveiled Atlantic Bastion, a hybrid force comprising crewed, uncrewed, and autonomous vessels. 

Type 26 frigates and existing P-8 Poseidon aircraft will provide most of the work on Atlantic Bastion, alongside Norway, which has agreed to help with the programme. 

Additional reporting by Tom Sables. 

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