Air defences seen lacking as Russian drones manage to spy on RAF bases, study finds
RAF bases are being monitored and spied on by Russian drones slipping through UK air defences, a report by a defence think tank has concluded.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies tracked drone incursions across 12 Nato nations and the Republic of Ireland.
Charlie Edwards, the co-author of the IISS report, which is called Russia's UAV Campaign Over Europe, said the findings show a pattern that is more than coincidence.
Coordinated, not just a coincidence
"This now looks like a more coordinated campaign," Mr Edwards told BFBS Forces News. "It's too consistent, it's too clustered around sensitive sites. It's too well timed.
"Most of these incidents are operating during a relatively short window at night, and you can't really explain that pattern in terms of hobbyists or commercial owners or mistaken identity."
The report assessed drone activity over critical national infrastructure, civilian airports and logistics hubs.
And there is a clear theme, with 48% of the incidents studied occurring over military facilities.
In the UK, there was a strong focus on RAF bases which host US troops, and IISS was particularly interested in a series of incidents around the highly secretive RAF Lakenheath.
Obvious targets for Russian surveillance
In just one week in November 2024, some 170 sightings of drones were analysed.
"There are some interesting descriptions of drones coming into the air base low and then flying away high and in different directions in the different incidents," said Mr Edwards.
"I think in one case, possibly a helicopter was used to track a drone, but then was told to stop on the grounds of safety."
The Lakenheath drone surveillance is one of four key incidents highlighted in the report which have a nuclear connection.
The others were the French nuclear submarine base at Ile Longue, the Belgian Kleine-Brogel air base and the Dutch Volkel air base believed to be used to store US airborne nuclear weapons.
Mr Edwards said the bases are an obvious target for Russian surveillance.
Drones backed by shadow fleet
"In the absence of either their satellite capability or indeed their intelligence network on the ground, they potentially resorted to using drones," he explained.
"So, clearly they were experimenting and trying to understand and probe those defences, but they are an obvious target in the broader campaign that Russia is waging against the West."
In many cases, Russian shadow fleet vessels were in the area loitering off the coast during critical time windows, and the report concluded that they act as host motherships, launching and recovering drones, sometimes even working as a sensor network with other ships.
During the RAF Lakenheath drone overflights, the Antigua & Barbuda-flagged HAV Dolphin and the Seasons I, both notorious shadow fleet platforms were close to the coast to the north and south of Lakenheath.
The report's authors believe the UK and other European countries targeted have the necessary capability to defend themselves from drone surveillance.
But the current rules of engagement are not calibrated to defend against these kind of incidents.
"What we saw is that a malign actor with their transponders turned off operating for a different purpose than, for example, a hobbyist can act with substantial impunity," he said.
"And therefore one of the conclusions of the report is that it was largely a strategic failure of allied air defence."
The report's authors are pushing for clearer rules and legislation to shore up Nato defences against this kind of campaign.
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