Ukraine's Dark Prince believes Russia needs the war to be over by the end of 2025
Ukraine's spy chief has predicted the next year will be critical for Russia, as Moscow's economy, military and people begin to feel the fatigue of war.
Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's intelligence service, told a conference in Kyiv that information from inside Russia suggests the Kremlin needs the war to be over by the end of next year.
Nicknamed the Dark Prince because of his unsmiling demeanour, Lt Gen Budanov said that Russia is facing financial problems, a lack of recruits, demoralisation from the Kursk incursion, and struggling to sustain its levels of military intensity.
"Next summer their problems will be much worse because several factors will merge together at that time," said Lt Gen Budanov in Kyiv.
"Financial problems; a lack of recruits that they can draft, and they will either have to announce mobilisation or bring down the level of intensity of their military actions which will be very critical for them."
He also said the country's defence industries are 'overheating' as they attempt to keep up with the pace of demand the war was creating.
Problems include shortages of raw materials, and shortages of labour and components which mean the Kremlin has to prioritise some weaponry production over others.
He cited the SU-57 jet fighter and the T-90M battle tank as two examples of vehicles Russia was struggling to produce in meaningful numbers.
The general says Russia is exhausting its stockpile of Soviet-era weaponry and is increasingly reliant on imported munitions with one supplier, in particular, propping up the Russian military.
He also said North Korea's assistance to Moscow is one of the worst issues facing Ukraine's Armed Forces, with the arrival of weapons and equipment from there coinciding with more aggressive Russian military action.
"We've noticed that as soon as North Korea shipments come to Russia, about seven to nine days later, hostilities intensify for a couple of weeks at a minimum," said Lt Gen Budanov.
"They provide Russia with ballistic missiles and so on – that's not that painful for us – it's the munitions from North Korea that is really bad for us and we can't do anything about that.
"We see the whole routes of the shipments. This is the 21st century, you can't hide anything, certainly not large boxes of weaponry."
As the West remains undecided on whether donated missiles can be fired deeper into Russian territory, Lt Gen Budanov said the use of long-range missiles like the British Storm Shadow would create a sense of insecurity in Russia.
But he dismissed ideas that Russia was in any position to arm rogue groups around the world, explaining that any equipment Putin could supply is tied up on the frontline in Ukraine.
He said: "(Putin's) asking for help himself. What sort of assistance can he give?"
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