Which way to turn: JEF Mk2 will keep Putin guessing, alliance founding member says

One of the principal architects of the Joint Expeditionary Force has said bolstering the unit’s planning, training and operational capabilities marked a moment in combatting the threat from Russia.

Brigadier (Retd) Robbie Boyd told the BFBS Sitrep podcast that the JEF’s ability to take action without prior Nato sign-off introduced a new element of surprise into Vladimir Putin’s calculations. 

"It does keep Russia guessing. It does give them more decisions to make," he said.

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This very public show of force in Oslo this week, when the 10 heads of the JEF navies stood together to sign the Northern Navies Initiative, rammed home the message of determined deterrence, according to Brig Boyd.

Sitrep’s Professor Michael Clarke agreed. Russia was, at present, getting a "relatively free ride."  No longer. 

"The point about the JEF is if the JEF can respond quickly, it can buy time for the rest of Nato, for the North Atlantic Council to spend a week thinking about it and deciding, and it can show that the Nato nations can react quickly and effectively," he told the podcast.

Crucially, the ability to move fast and act independently of Nato gave the European nations the ability to "overmatch [the Russians] at the point of contact" and to "control the escalation".

However, both Brig Boyd and Prof Clarke urged caution in seeing the JEF, even in strengthened form, as the silver bullet.

Referring to the UK’s lead role in the JEF, Brig Boyd said: "To do it properly we actually need to be fully funded and have the Navy back as to where it was."

Prof Clarke agreed. "Poor Gwyn Jenkins and the Navy do have a problem because they're at a low ebb at the moment in terms of capability and doing the best they can with what they've got. You know, sticking plasters is a polite way of putting it."

Ironically, it was both the JEF’s strength and weakness to be led by the UK. 

"We are the framework nation," Prof Clarke added.

"And although we have full spectrum forces, which you have to have as a framework nation, we have full spectrum forces at such low levels, low absolute numbers that we can't guarantee to provide a full framework."